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Bud's Poem Page Bud's Prairie Populist Sunni/Shiite/Iraq/Iran |
14 May 2008Thoughts And we have a bridge we would like to sell you. U.S. consumer prices were under wraps last month, a government report showed, evidence that the economic slowdown is easing some of the inflationary effect of recent sharp gains in food and energy prices. The consumer price index increased 0.2% in April; excluding food and energy, CPI advanced 0.1%. Wall Street economists had expected a 0.2% rise in both the headline and core indexes, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. In that report the government
said that gasoline prices were down 2% in April.
Investors Intelligence reported
an increase to 46% bulls and a decrease to 29% bears in their survey last week.
It is a truism that as the markets rise so does
bullish sentiment.
Deere missed by penny and is down $8 per share and Applied Materials also had a less than report.
Whole Foods disappointed and dropped $4 per share in overnight trading. We actually found the report to be better than we expected. This is the conference call transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article We remain interested in WFMI as a long term investment but for now we are buying shares in our large/aggressive accounts for a trade.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight. The new trading mantra is that the earthquake is a good thing for the world economy because of the rebuilding that will need resources from around the world. That is called trading on graves and is a staple of raw capitalism. Sometimes it seems like we are all ants. European bourse indexes are mildly mixed at midday and U.S. futures are going to open higher on the tame CPI data which of course is a sham but worth trading on for a few hours. Gold is down $6 and Oil has a
$125 handle. Treasuries are flat as the trading day begins.
Toll Bros builders said the following on their conference call: Second-quarter
2008 homebuilding results:
Toll Brothers continues to reduce land option exposure. At the end of
the quarter, the company had 51,800 lots owned and under option vs. a peak of
91,200 at the end of second quarter 2006. The company is now operating 300
selling communities vs. 315 at the end of first quarter 2008 and the peak of
325 at second quarter 2007. By the end of fiscal 2008, Toll Brothers is
expected to be selling from approximately 290 communities.
Overnight we were thinking about our investments philosophy as it has evolved over the years. As we have aged we have become more risk averse and have been quick to move to cash when we perceived risk in the marketplace. That philosophy did well for us in the bear market of 2000 to 2003 and hurt our performance in the years from 2003 to 2007. Nevertheless even now after our recent misadventures our accounts are up 50% or more in the last ten years while the S&P 500 is basically unchanged. In reviewing our trading we realized that when we go for ‘singles’ as opposed to all in ‘home runs’ we do a lot better. And when we decide that we know more than the markets and vary our investment/trading style we tend to suffer. That is what occurred when we loaded up in September and October of last year and were double whammied by the drop in November 2007 and then again by the flop in January-March 2008. Luckily we survived and are back to mostly even (plus or minus 2%) in ours and our managed accounts with a large cash holding. We are going to stick singles production. Home runs are for market collapses not market corrections. The following article is what sharpened our focus. Buffett Veers off His Investment Path Doug
Kass 05/13/08 - 11:59 AM EDT This post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on May 13 at 8:05 a.m. EDT. "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." -- Warren Buffett Since February, the shares of Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A have consistently fallen. And despite the recent market rally, the company's common shares hit a new 2008 low yesterday. "You can observe a lot by just watching." -- Yogi Berra I believe the principle reason is Warren Buffet's investment style drift, which was reflected in a large derivative loss in first quarter 2008. Let me explain. As a dedicated short seller I often take a variant view of a company's prospects through logic of argument and analytical dissection, mocking conventional wisdom and the associated popularity surrounding certain investments that, in my view, created an unwarranted degree of optimism in the marketplace. Indeed, some of my best investment shorts -- including Ron Perlman's Marvel Entertainment MRVL in the early 1990s, after which it filed bankruptcy; America Online, coincident with its 2001 acquisition of Time Warner TWX; homebuilding companies, a favorite of the momentum crowd in 2004; or private mortgage and credit insurers in 2006 -- initially triggered ridicule by many market participants as my targeted stock market icons (and shorts) were typically seen as Teflon. If one reads some of the great investment books that chronicles legendary traders/investors successes -- such as Jack Schwager's Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders -- there is common thread to the successes of Soros Fund Management's George Soros, Duquesne's Stanley Druckenmiller, Fidelity's Peter Lynch, Capital Growth Management's Ken Heebner, Omega Advisors' Leon Cooperman, SAC's Steve Cohen and Steinhardt Partners' Michael Steinhardt: They consistently stick to their knitting and avoid style drift. Not surprisingly, when I initially explained the rationale behind shorting Berkshire Hathaway in March 2008, I received a lot of criticism, particularly from some of my hedge fund heavyweight friends who I respect immensely. Frankly, it was hard for me to write that piece as I have worshipped at the altar of Warren Buffett over the years. Nevertheless, I stood by my analysis and initiated a short, and I even shorted more Berkshire several weeks later. The night before Buffett's Woodstock of Capitalism, Berkshire Hathaway reported horrible first-quarter 2008 results, weighed down by derivative losses and disappointing results in the company's insurance operations. There was little coverage of Berkshire's weak first-quarter performance, though Citigroup's research analyst downgraded the stock a week or so later, as it occurred on the eve of the company's Annual Meeting (and pilgrimage to Omaha) -- a much ballyhooed event, which was covered widely by most business news networks. "Even Napoleon had his Watergate." -- Yogi Berra There was even less coverage of Buffett's recent foray into derivatives. Berkshire's exposure to derivatives increased by $16 billion, to $40 billion, in the last year. "Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." -- Warren Buffett Over the past five years, Buffett frequently called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction", comparing derivates to "hell...easy to enter and almost impossible to exit." Yet, he has, very much out of character, immersed himself in a large and, thus far, unprofitable derivative transaction. His investment successes have not been in speculating in the market (something he has been critical of) but rather by purchasing easily understandable companies with dependable cash flows that sometimes seem imperiled by an exogenous event and are available on the cheap. It immediately occurred to me after gazing at Buffett's style drift (manifested in Berkshire Hathaway's large first quarter derivate losses) that he might be increasingly viewed as the New Millennium's Ben Franklin, a man who wrote "early to bed and early to rise" but spent many of his evenings in France, whoring all night and showing up to work after noon (to the massive frustration of John Adams). I concluded that Warren Buffett was getting a free pass and had drifted away from an investment process that had rewarded both him and Berkshire's shareholders so dramatically over the years. "He hits from both sides of the plate. He's amphibious." -- Yogi Berra I also recently highlighted why I thought that Buffett was not only a great investor but, in recent years, he had become an even better marketer, with the benefit of his image accruing to Berkshire. For example, he has cultivated an image of someone who started with nothing, even though he was the son of a well-to-do stockbroker who became a U.S. Congressman. Everyone thinks of him as America's Business Grandpa, but remember, he grabbed control of a textile firm and promised not to change anything. He did make changes, though, eventually using the textile company's cash flow for acquisitions, shutting down the factory over time. In essence, Buffett has sold himself as a savior, or investor of last (or often first!) resort. As such, he has positioned himself to prosper in the form of getting beneficial terms in acquisitions, a positive but still a "marketing" technique. As an example, Berkshire contributed over $4 billion of subordinated debt in the recent Mars deal. But what didn't get much press -- and it should have! -- was that on top of the debt, Berkshire invested over $2 billion of equity in the Wrigley WWY/Mars transaction at a "discount" to the price that Mars eventually will pay for Wrigley's common shares. I am staying short Berkshire Hathaway. "The future isn't what it used to be." -- Yogi Berra Enough said. Doug Kass is the author of The Edge, a blog
on RealMoney Silver that features real-time
shorting opportunities on the market.
We sold Evergreen
Solar for a scratch profit. At midday the major measures are
1% higher on decent volume. New highs are expanding. All is good except that it
is an expiration week with Triple Witching on Thursday/Friday so the gains of
today may be ephemeral- or may be real. We’ll know next week if not before.
Gold ended the day down $4 at $866 and Oil finished at $124.13. Treasuries gave ground with the two-year at 2.45% and the ten-year at 3.90%. The euro was $1.54 and it takes 105 yen to buy a dollar. European bourse indexes closed
higher as did Mexico and Brazil.
This discussion from realmoney.com of Deere’s earnings demonstrates the Catch 22 that may apply to other international companies re materials costs and the dollar: Deere missed the quarter during one of the great agriculture booms of
our generation, stunning the Street and sending the stock down 8% this morning.
EPS of $1.75 missed by a penny, and sales of $7.47 billion came up short of the
$7.61 billion consensus. These numbers do reflect a strong quarter: Sales are up 19%, driven by a 30% production increase in ag equipment. Management raised
growth guidance for the balance of the year, noting equipment sales should grow
20% this year on production growth of 17% vs. previous expectations of 17%
equipment sales growth on 15% production growth. But profit guidance is unchanged. Deere management is being surprised (and is surprising investors) by
soaring material costs. This encompasses all aspects of production (steel
prices, fuel for transportation, etc.). For a company whose business is booming
due to commodity inflation, it is sweet irony to be nipped by it as well.
Management is struggling to grasp the expected cost increases and is offering a
wide range of an increase of $400 million to $500 million of incremental costs
this year, most coming in the third quarter. This guidance is double its
previous expectation for cost increases. Here is the crux of Deere's problem: backlog. Normally, Wall Street loves the visibility provided by a
large backlog, but, in this case, Deere is not able to raise prices to offset
material price increases, resulting in pinched margins. The company is only seeing
2% "price realizations," far below the inflation rate on the
production side. The good news is that this situation will reverse in 2009, as
orders being taken now for next year are being priced higher. Management is not
yet offering 2009 guidance, but analysts should figure that margins could soar
in 2009. Before investors get overly enthusiastic, though, they should also
figure in the risk from currency movement. Deere is a huge beneficiary of the
weak dollar, which contributed nearly one-third of the growth in equipment
sales, and is expected to contribute 4 points to the growth rate next quarter.
Beware a falling dollar, which would hurt the company's foreign exchange
translations, but also its end markets, which are booming due to commodity
price inflation.
The Major measures surrendered half their gains in the
final hour but still closed higher on the day. The DJIA gained 65 points to close at 12898. The S&P
500 regained ground above 1405 and rose 6 points to close at 1408. And the NAZZ
had been up 15 points but selling in the last fifteen minutes caused it to only
gain 1 point to 2497. Breadth was 3/2 positive on the NYSE and flat on the NAZZ
but volume was light. There were 150 new highs and 60 new lows on the NYSE. The bulls won the day.
This is an interesting discussion of a Congressional plan for resolving the mortgage crisis. The
Barney Frank and Chris Dodd proposal for an effective 'nationalization' of a
good part of the distressed mortgages is the only sensible proposal that would
start to tackle the vicious circle of falling home prices, rising defaults and
foreclosures and growing mortgage losses for financial institutions. It
does indeed represents a “nationalization of mortgages as the financial
institutions that would be willing to reduce the face value of their mortgages
by 15% of the current (lower) market value of the home property and let home
owners refinance at this lower debt level at a more affordable mortgage rate
(effectively converting variable rate mortgages into fixed rate mortgage) would
have the new mortgage balance guaranteed by the FHA (or some other government
agency). It is nationalization because it is equivalent to a plan where the
government buys these mortgages outright at the same discount of the current
market value of the property and then refinances home owners into a mortgage of
lower principal value and with a more affordable fixed rate interest
rate. Why
is this effective nationalization of mortgages necessary and desirable to start
resolving the severe mortgage crisis? Let us discuss in more detail the logic
of this proposal… While
the idea of nationalizing a good part of the now private mortgage market may
seem radical it is the only sensible policy available and that makes sense: in
this plan borrowers and lenders and the fiscal authorities are all better off
than the alternative of a disorderly market outcome where a tsunami of
foreclosures leads to bigger losses for all the relevant parties. Lenders
are better off as a government buying or guaranteeing at a discount mortgages
puts a floor on the losses faced by such lenders. Suppose home prices for a
property have already fallen 10% and the government buys or guarantees the
mortgage at 15% discount relative to the lower current value of the property
(to cover the additional expected fall in the home value until home prices
bottom out): then the lender loses 25% of the original value of the mortgage;
this is the haircut faced by the lender. The haircut is steep but the
alternative of the property going into default and the lender pushing for
foreclosure would cause the lender a much larger loss of the order of 50%: in
addition to the 25% expected fall in the home value you need to add the lost
interest on the defaulted mortgage until the property is sold, the legal cost
of foreclosure and the cost of the property being dilapidated if not vandalized
while being in the foreclosure process. So while a 25% haircut is steep the
alternative of a 50% loss on the mortgage is much worse. Thus, it is no wonder
that Bank of America and many other Wall Street institutions have presented
proposals similar to the Frank-Dodd one or supported this proposal. Wall Street
realizes that such a proposal puts a floor to their expected losses and that
the alternative of a disorderly workout is much worse for them. Borrowers
are also better off as distressed borrowers who are into negative equity
territory and/or unable to service their mortgages but willing to stay in their
homes et a debt reduction: they can avoid the costs of
default and foreclosure and be able to remain as homeowners in their homes. The
reduction in the face value of their mortgage and the conversion of variable
rate mortgages allows them to continue servicing their mortgages rather than
face a foreclosure that hurts not only them individually but also the
communities in which they live when a surge of foreclosures lead to negative
social effects (falling value of homes in areas with large foreclosures, loss
of tax revenues for local government and the negative “so goes the
neighborhood” effects). The
government is also better off with this plan. First, the plan does not
necessarily represent a bailout of lenders as the government buys or guarantees
the mortgages only after lenders have accepted a pretty steep haircut relative
to the already depressed market value of the asset. Ideally if the government
buys the mortgages at a discount that represents the true value of the asset
after home prices have bottomed out, the ensuing reduction in the face value of
the mortgage for the borrowers ensures that most borrowers will be able to
service the lower debt and thus, in this ideal situation, the fiscal costs for
the government of such as plan are zero. So, in principle, such a plan could
have little or no fiscal cost for the government. Second,
the fiscal costs of the alternative market-based disorderly
workout of debts is much more costly to the government. The exposure of
US large banks to real estate is about 47% of their assets and this percentage
is 67% for smaller banks. If a tsunami of foreclosures in the disorderly
workout implies that bank would lose 50 cents on the dollar (after the price
fall and all the other foreclosure costs are included) rather than 25 cents on
the dollar (if they accept the Frank-Dodd haircut) many banks would go belly up
(estimated losses range between $500 and $1000 billion depending on how many
households end up in foreclosures and/or walk away from their homes) and then,
given deposit insurance, the FDIC would have to bailout the depositors of these
banks. Fiscal costs of a bailout after such as systemic
banking crisis could be as high as $1 trillion and certainly at least several
hundreds billion dollar. Third,
instead even in the worst scenario the fiscal losses in the Frank-Dodd proposal
would be much smaller. Suppose for example that the government buys mortgages
from the banks at 85 cents on the dollar rather than the 75 cents on the dollar
that represents the true final value of the home and the true ability of the
borrower to pay (the government may do that because some banks would go belly
up even in a 25% haircut scenario and/or because the political economy of such
a program would imply an effective subsidy to the lenders relative to the true
market value of the asset). Then, in order to avoid massive defaults on the
refinanced homes the government would have to reduce further the mortgage
principal from 85 to 75 cents on the dollar. That difference 10% represents a
subsidy to the lender as the haircut is lower than the true value of the asset.
But even in this extreme case the total fiscal cost is only $30 billion if $300
billion of mortgages are purchased by the government (as per the Frank-Dodd
proposal). Even in the likely case that the initial $300 billion becomes a $1
trillion program (as at least that many mortgages need to be purchased and
refinanced to avoid massive defaults and foreclosures) the total fiscal cost of
such a bailout is only $100 billion (or 0.7% of GDP), i.e. much less than the
fiscal cost of the bailout of the S&L’s during
the 1990s. In
conclusion, compared to a disorderly market workout a Frank-Dodd resolution of
the mortgage problem makes all parties better off: the borrowers, the lender
and the government. The losses for all parties are much lower than the
alternative. How is that possible? The answer is simple: debt theory suggests
that when a debtor is unable to pay (insolvent) an orderly restructuring of the
debt including a debt reduction make both the debtor and its creditors better
off as the alternative of liquidation –as opposed to debt reduction – implies
social costs in the form of liquidation costs (in this case foreclosure costs).
Debt
reduction for mortgages of home owners who are willing and able to continue
servicing their mortgages if the face value is reduced and made affordable are
the equivalent of a chapter 11 restructuring that dominates the liquidation
equilibrium (foreclosure for mortgages, chapter 7 liquidation for corporate
distress). If the continuation value of the asset (of the firm) as an ongoing
concern is larger than its liquidation value debt reduction (i.e. chapter 11
debt restructuring for firms) dominates the liquidation, i.e. foreclosure
equilibrium (chapter 7 liquidation for firms) as the liquidation costs and the
ensuing destruction of social value is avoided. Thus, the Frank-Dodd proposal
is a way to achieve a socially superior “Chapter 11” restructuring that makes
borrowers, lenders and the fiscal authorities better off compared to a “Chapter
7” liquidation equilibrium where the lender ends up with a bigger haircut than
under restructuring, the borrower loses its home, the nearby neighborhood
(including local tax authorities) suffers from the blight and negative
externalities of massive foreclosures and the government losses are larger as
the fiscal bailout of a bankrupt banking system become massive. This
is why in my March 19th blog “The Worst Financial
Crisis Since the Great Depression is Getting Worse…and
the Need for Radical Policy Solutions to the Crisis” I supported this debt
reduction resolution to the mortgage crisis. As I put it then: “This
government intervention would not be aimed to prevent the necessary adjustment
of asset prices; it would be aimed at ensuring that the necessary adjustment is
not disorderly. Such
radical policy action includes a government plan to purchase – at a significant
discount to minimize its fiscal cost – hundreds of billions of dollars –
possibly trillions – of mortgages, effectively a nationalization of mortgages.
Once purchased by the governments at a significantly discounted price these
mortgages could be restructured to reduce their face value, reduce the interest
rate on the mortgage and allow distressed but solvent borrowers to avoid
foreclosure. To limit borrowers’ moral hazard only truly distressed borrowers
would qualify: i.e. no condo flippers, no second home borrowers, no early
default borrowers; only borrowers that were likely to be subject to deceptive
and/or predatory lending practices. Only this formal nationalization of
mortgages will start to stop the foreclosure disaster and jingle mail tsunami
ahead of us. The fiscal costs and lenders’ moral hazard risks of such a plan
can be significantly reduced if action is taken early and if the price at which
the government buys mortgages from lenders is low enough. Of
course the price adjustment in overpriced asset prices should not and cannot be
avoided: home prices will have to fall at least 30%; equities will need to
sharply correct in a bear market; risk spreads will have to widen sharply; many
institutions will go bankrupt as they should. But what we risk today is a
systemic financial meltdown where negative feedback loops lead asset prices to
collapse much more than justified even by the much lower fundamental value of
such assets. So
government intervention is necessary not to avoid the unavoidable massive
losses and bankruptcies and the unavoidable fundamental adjustment in asset
prices. It is rather necessary to avoid a financial meltdown where asset prices
fall much more than justified by economic fundamentals and the credit crunch
and de-leveraging of the financial system is much more severe than the
necessary one that will occur regardless of any public intervention. Alternative
solutions that allow a private sector restructuring of mortgages and rely on
greater market mechanism should not be ruled out but they will be complementary
to government action rather than replacing it altogether: changing bankruptcy
rules to allow judges to cram-down a reduction in the face value of the
mortgage is useful and empirical evidence suggest that this change will not
significantly affect mortgage rates (in the same way that introducing
collective action clauses in sovereign bonds did not affect at all sovereign
bond spreads). Also, using negative equity certificates for banks that accept a
reduction in the face value of mortgages so that they get option value of a
potential long term increase in the value of the underlying home is a sensible
idea. These
and other proposals that are “market-oriented” can complement government action
but – for a variety of reasons – they cannot fully replace it: the collapse in
the mortgage market, even the agency one is severe; there is no large
deep-pocketed private sector agent that can buy and restructure such large
amount of mortgages and reliquify the frozen mortgage
and MBS markets; delays in restructuring will only further impair the value of
the assets and lead to bigger deadweight losses (such as socially wasteful
foreclosures costs) down the line; risk of litigation in case servicers restructure mortgages and collective action
problems among the final investors holding the claims on such mortgages
(different tranches of CDOs
creditors) may slow down or block the necessary debt restructuring; and other
collective action problems and externalities are likely to slow down any
private solution.” As
I pointed out in this March piece market solutions – i.e. lenders voluntarily
reducing the mortgages to a level that borrowers can afford – do not work
because of the collective action problems (coordinate the interest of different
and dispersed claimants – say holders of different tranches
of CDOs - who have different seniority levels
relative to the mortgages and thus different willingness to accept debt
reduction) and because of the destructive delays that any market process – or
even a legal bankruptcy procedure with cram-downs – would entail. In
this regard it is important to note that timely passage of the Frank-Dodd
proposal is crucial. If such a proposal does not become legislation before July
then Congress goes into recess, then presidential elections do not occur until
November, then the President (whoever he or she may be) is not installed until
January 2009 and Congress returns to business only in February 2009. Thus, not
passing this legislation now means that another year in wasted before this
reasonable resolution of the mortgage crisis is adopted. And a year makes a
whole difference because a year from now average national home prices will be
25% lower than their peak (rather than the current 15%) and a year from now
millions of households will be forced into foreclosure and/or will walk away
from their homes with massive losses for all, including most of all the
lenders. This
recognition that a public resolution to the mortgage crisis is necessary – and
indeed all financial crises in the past in the US and other countries have been
resolved with some form of government intervention – and beneficial to all is
behind the growing support from many quarters of this proposal. Initially a few
months ago only Congressional Democrats were supporting it; but last week the
House passed this proposal with the support of a number of Republican
congress-folks. Also, many Wall Street firms have supported this or similar
proposal under the recognition that the significant losses and haircuts for
financial institutions under this proposal would be much lower than those under
a disorderly foreclosure workout that may lead to a systemic banking crisis.
Moreover, even the Fed has been somewhat sympathetic to this proposal as
Chairman Bernanke – and other Fed governors - recognized early on that banks
should start accepting the fact that freezing of mortgage interest resets would
now be enough and that bank should start recognizing that mortgage debt
reduction was necessary to avoid massive foreclosures (and the Fed has provided
some technical advice to Frank while not formally supporting the proposal). And
until recently even the US Treasury appeared open to such a proposal as
Secretary Paulson suggested that he would be open to more radical approaches to
the mortgage crisis (an indirect nod to the Frank-Dodd proposal). So
with the support of Democrats in Congress, of some Republicans, of the
distressed borrowers, of a good part of Wall Street, implicitly of the Fed and
with the potential openness of Treasury to this idea why has the White House
threatened to veto this proposal? The best case scenario is that the White
House (and now Treasury) is now posturing as a bargaining position for
eventually supporting a slightly modified version of this proposal. The worst
case interpretation is that an ideological White House (and some similarly
ideological Senate Republicans) mean business when they threatened a veto (and
they have sidelined the more flexible and pragmatic Paulson). And
since the Frank-Dodd proposal did not pass the House with a veto-proof majority
an actual veto may doom this sensible resolution of the mortgage crisis and
would certainly lead to a disorderly workout as a similar proposal could be
then reconsidered and passed by Congress only in the middle of 2009. And a
proposal like this passed a year from now rather than now would be the
difference between making a disorderly outcome likely with all the ensuing
consequences for the real economy and the financial markets or rather ensuring
an early more orderly workout of excessive debts. Indeed,
one of the reasons why credit markets and mortgages market have somehow
recovered from their extreme lows in mid-March was the recognition that, after
a variety of useless gimmicks such as the Hope Plan and the Project Lifeline, a
serious proposal to address the mortgage crisis had a chance to be passed early
on and thus provide a needed and beneficial backstop to the mortgage market.
But if this proposal were to be vetoed and doomed the ongoing disorderly
adjustment of the housing and markets will continue: the free fall in home
prices will get worse as many more home owners default, walk away or end up in
foreclosure; a realistic floor on the losses on mortgages faced by financial
institutions would not be achieved and ongoing downward spiral of price falls,
negative equity, delinquencies and foreclosures would accelerate with
disastrous effects for borrowers, lenders and, ultimately, a government that
would have to fiscalize the bailout cost of a
systemic banking crisis. So,
to avoid having to nationalize a good chunk of the banking system we will have
to accept that the best solution to this crisis is an effective nationalization
of a good part of existing mortgage. As it is the mortgage market is mostly
public as about half of all mortgages are insured or securitized by Fannie and
Freddie that are now effectively public rather than private institutions that
are being used for public policy purposes (as the increase in their portfolio
limits, the reduction in their capital requirements and the increase in the
limit for conforming loans implies that they are being used – in spite of their
mounting losses and risk – for public policy goals). So
after the Fed has been used to reliquify $500 billion
of illiquid MBS and ABS, after the Federal Home Loan Bank system has been used
to provide hundreds of billions of liquidity to illiquid and/or insolvent
mortgage lenders, after Fannie and Freddie have been already effectively
nationalized by being used to prop the mortgage market (so much for the decade
long farce of pretending to minimize the moral hazard perception of an implicit
government guarantee of these “private” institutions), after the Fed has cut
the Fed Funds rates by 325bps, has provided a $29 billion bailout to the
creditors of Bear Stearns and created a whole host of new facilities (TAF,
TSLF, PDCF) that vastly extend the lender of last resort support role of the
Fed to non banks, after the FHA has extended its support of mortgages, after
government-induced market solutions such as the Hope Plan and the Project
Lifeline have been tried, after all these actions the mortgage crisis remains
as severe as ever. It is as severe or even worse
because all the previous public policy actions have not addressed the simple
and basic problem of this crisis: this is not just a liquidity crisis; it is
mostly a credit or insolvency crisis as millions of households cannot afford
servicing their mortgage debts and need debt reduction rather than just
freezing of mortgage rates or restretching of their
mortgage terms or similar cosmetic band aid gimmicks. The Frank-Dodd proposal
is the only one that starts addressing the core problem of this crisis, the
insolvency issue and the need for an orderly debt reduction. Thus, it is
pathetic that while almost everyone agrees that this is a right and essential
step in the true resolution of this crisis the White House is holding again to
its stubborn free market fundamentalism ideology that is at the root cause of
this crisis in the first place. A White House veto of the Frank-Dodd proposal
would ensure that this most severe mortgage crisis spiral into a disorderly
workout that would make all the relevant players - borrowers, lenders and the
government – worse off. In the presence of negative externalities and
coordination failures appropriate public policy solutions can prevent avoidable
deadweight losses to society deriving from crises triggered by serious market
failures. In this situation threatening a veto to prevent these socially
beneficial resolutions of crises is adding insult to injury and further massive
injury to already large losses.
13 May 2008Thoughts Hewlett Packard is going to acquire EDS for $12.8 billion in cash and that has traders talking mergers in the large cap tech area. Coincidentally with announcing the acquisition HPQ announced preliminary earnings for the quarter. HPQ said net income on a preliminary basis rose for the quarter ended April 30 to 80 cents a share from 65 cents, with earnings excluding acquisition costs raising to 87 cents a share from 70 cents a share. Revenue rose 11% to $28.3 billion. The company, which was slated to release its quarterly results Thursday but pushed the release date to next Tuesday, had projected earnings between 83 cents and 84 cents on revenue of $27.7 billion to $27.9 billion. And now HPQ can take special
charges for the next year to manage earnings from continuing operations. CEO Hurd learned for Jack Welch of GE.
Retail sales ex autos were also better than for the month of April.
AIG, the large insurance company
raised $7.5 billion by selling a bunch of common stock at $34. The shares
closed yesterday at $39 yesterday. The analysts think the sale is good deal for
the company. Why does that CEO still have his job and when he leaves why does he deserve any bonus package.
Asian markets were 1% or higher
overnight and European bourse indexes are mixed at midday. Gold is down $14 and
Oil has a $123 handle.
Treasuries are mixed as Uncle Ben made comments overnight that he is still worried about the financial markets. That was another reason for the weakness this morning until WMT and HPQ made things better. Here is an analysis of what Bernanke said: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said financial markets remain
unsettled and the central bank will increase its auctions of cash to banks as
needed. While market conditions have improved, they remain ``far from normal,''
Bernanke said today in the text of a speech to an Atlanta Fed conference at Sea
Island, Georgia. ``We stand ready to increase the size of the auctions if
further warranted by financial developments.'' Bernanke's
comments contrast with those by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Wall
Street leaders including Vikram Pandit,
chief executive officer of Citigroup Inc., who say the worst of the credit
crisis is over. The Fed chief said it will take ``some time'' for financial firms
to resolve the crisis by raising new capital and strengthening their management
of risk. The flight from risk since
August has made financial institutions reluctant to lend to each other, driving
up banks' borrowing costs. The central bank has made its own balance sheet available
to both banks and bond dealers through three new lending tools, and an
expansion of existing programs. Bernanke said the Fed's
efforts have yielded ``some improvement,'' while also noting that the steps
raise questions regarding moral hazard, or protecting those who take on risk. The central bank's extension of the federal safety net raised questions about whether the government should now use taxpayer money to stem mortgage foreclosures, the primary cause of market distress. `Moral
Hazard' ``A central bank that is too
quick to act as a liquidity provider of last resort risks inducing moral
hazard,'' Bernanke said. The belief that the Fed is always standing by would
give ``financial institutions and their creditors less incentive to pursue
suitable strategies for managing liquidity risk and more incentive to take such
risks.'' Bernanke didn't discuss the
path of interest rates or the outlook for the economy. The Federal Open Market
Committee last month cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2 percent and
signaled it's ready for a pause after seven reductions. Cleveland Fed President
Sandra Pianalto said in a speech in Paris today that
consumer prices are rising faster than she'd like and that inflation is a ``key
risk'' to the economic outlook. Pianalto is a voter
on the FOMC this year. The Fed chairman said
federal banking agencies are trying to address moral hazard through a review of
``policies and guidance regarding liquidity risk management to determine what
improvements can be made.'' Raise
Capital ``Future liquidity planning
will have to take into account the possibility of a sudden loss of substantial
amounts of secured financing,'' Bernanke said. ``Ultimately, market
participants themselves must address the fundamental sources of financial strains
-- through deleveraging, raising new capital, and
improving risk management.'' That process will take time,
he added, noting that ``once financial conditions become more normal, the
extraordinary provision by the Federal Reserve will no longer be needed.'' The Fed announced May 2 that
it would boost the Term Auction Facility, or TAF, to $150 billion per month
from $100 billion, the third increase since the program began in December. Premiums in term dollar
funding markets still ``remain abnormally high,'' Bernanke said. ``Funding
pressures have also been evident in the strong participation at recent TAF
auctions even after the recent expansion in auction sizes.'' The gap between three-month
Treasury bill yields and three-month dollar-denominated loans in London
narrowed to 89 basis points yesterday, the least since Feb. 20. A basis point
is 0.01 percentage point. Boosting
Auctions On March 11, the Fed
announced the Term Securities Lending Facility, which allows primary dealers to
swap up to $200 billion of AAA rated commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities and other collateral for the Fed's
holding of Treasury securities for up to 28 days. The facility was aimed at
helping dealers finance mortgage bonds. The FOMC expanded the
facility May 2 to include AAA rated asset-backed securities. The decision
followed two separate requests by groups of Senate and House members that the
Fed accept debt backed by student loans under the program. ``The Federal Reserve has had to innovate in
large part to achieve what other central banks have been able to effect through
existing tools,'' Bernanke said. Bernanke also repeated his
defense of the Fed's rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. in March. The central bank
invoked emergency authority on March 16 to start direct lending to government
bond dealers, and arranged $30 billion in financing to facilitate the Bear
Stearns takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bear
Stearns ``A bankruptcy filing would
have forced Bear's secured creditors and counterparties to liquidate the
underlying collateral,'' Bernanke said in his speech. ``Given the illiquidity
of markets, those creditors and counterparties might have sustained losses.'' The Bear Stearns loan has been criticized by
some former officials and Fed watchers, who said the central bank shouldn't
substitute its own loans for fleeing creditors when institutions become
insolvent. Vincent Reinhart, former
director of the Fed Board's Division of Monetary Affairs, called the Bear
rescue the ``worst policy decision in a generation.'' Creditors also now perceive
a wide safety net under investment banks, which the Fed doesn't supervise. The cost of default
protection on Merrill Lynch & Co. debt fell to 1.58 percentage point
yesterday from 3.3 percentage points March 14, CMA Datavision's
credit-default swap prices show. Kansas City Fed President
Thomas Hoenig said May 6 the central bank's decisions
are ``likely to weaken market discipline.'' AIG opened at $38 having sold ten days trading volume overnight at
$34. Who is buying?
Hewlett Packard opened $2 lower.
The price of oil jumped to $126
about noon and then backed off as the Senate approved a plan to halt purchases
for the strategic oil reserve. Check the dopes ought to be selling that oil at
this price. Whatever. Stocks are trying to rally with a few hours remaining in
the trading day. It is nice to not have a horse in the race for a while.
European stocks closed mixed.
Gold finished off $15 at $870 and Oil was $125.61 at the end of NYC trading.
Treasuries gave ground with the two-year at 2.45% and the ten-year at 3.89%.
The euro was $1.54 and the yen 104 to the dollar.
The $15 billion RV industry has been among the less-heralded casualties of the mortgage and housing crises, say manufacturers, dealers and others. But the impact has been severe. RV sales peaked in 2006 at about 390,000 vehicles, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. After a 12% drop in 2007, the trade group expects sales to tumble 14% to about 305,000 vehicles this year, the lowest level since 2001. Industry watchers say couples in
or nearing their 50s are the core market for motor homes and travel trailers.
These couples are delaying their purchases of RVs, largely because they would
typically have financed them by selling or borrowing against their homes. That
has become more difficult as home values have plunged nationwide.
The DJIA lost 44 to 12832. The S&P 500 was down 1 point at 1403 and the NAZZ gained 6 points to 2495. Breadth was flat and volume was light. There were 120 new highs and 75 new lows on the NYSE. Today was a tie between the bulls and bears.
12 May 2008Happy 8th birthday to the Princess in Kentucky Thoughts Stocks are higher after an hour
of trading this morning with the DJIA up 68 points. We are using the rally to continue raising cash
having sold United Foods, Gap, JDSU
and Motorola holdings this morning
as well as half of our TLAB and
another half of our Chico’s
holdings.
Asian markets were higher
overnight as are European markets past midday. Gold is $3 lower and the dollar
has rallied a bit with the euro at $1.54. Treasures are flat and Oil has a $125
handle.
After the close Friday, FedEx cut its fiscal 2008 forecast saying it now
expects to earn between $1.45 and $1.50 per share for the quarter ending May
31, down from prior estimates of $1.60 to $1.80 per share. An interesting story: http://www.nytimes.com
From the WSJ: Wachovia
confirmed that its Wachovia Securities LLC and other affiliates received inquiries and subpoenas from the Securities and Exchange
Commission and several state regulators regarding auction-rate securities.
The financial services firm said the regulators are seeking information
concerning the underwriting, sale and subsequent auctions of municipal auction-rate
securities and auction-rate preferred securities. "Further review and
inquiry is anticipated by the regulatory authorities and Wachovia will
cooperate fully," the company said in its quarterly report with the SEC.
Also, Wachovia and Wachovia Securities were named in a lawsuit in New York. The
lawsuit seeks class-action status for customers who bought and continue to hold
auction-rate securities based upon alleged misrepresentations made with respect
to the quality, risk and characteristics of the securities. The bond market for
auction-rate securities has recently experienced significant difficulties
caused by decreased demand, failed auctions, unusual interest rates and other
challenges. Auction-rate debt carries yields similar to long-term debt but acts
like short-term investments because investors can sell at weekly or monthly
auctions, when rates reset. The $330
billion market was used a lot by municipalities to borrow money, but it
collapsed earlier this year. New York's attorney general and securities
regulators in several states are conducting a broad investigation of the
auction-rate securities and the role played by Wall Street firms in promoting
and marketing these to investors.
Oil closed down $2.05 at $123.91. Gold dropped $4 to $884. Treasuries were unchanged with the two-year at 2.27% and the ten-year at 2.75%. The yen was 103.5 to the dollar and the one euro equaled $1.55 at day’s end. European bourse indexes finished
mildly higher as did Brazil and Mexico were higher.
The DJIA rose 135 points to 12880. The S&P 500 regained 15 points to 1405 resistance and the NAZZ jumped 43 points to 2488. Breadth was 2/1 positive and volume was summer light. There were 60 new highs and 76 new lows on the NYSE. The bulls won the day but the low volume and negative new
high/ne low are a worry for them.
9 May 2008Thoughts The major measures are going to open over 1% lower on news that AIG, the large insurance conglomerate lost $8 billion in the latest quarter on bad investments and is going to raise $12 billion in equity capital. And the fools raised the dividend. The CEO of AIG sad the following: "While we anticipated a difficult trading environment, the severity of the unrealized valuation losses and decline in value of our investments were beyond our expectations." That this fellow keeps his job is an outrage to capitalism. There is no accountability in the welfare capitalism that exists in the U. S. On CNBC, the business channel,
the talking heads are playing poker. Are we worried?
Asian markets were 1$ and more
lower and the same holds true in Europe at midday. Oil has a $125 handle and
Gold is up at $888. Treasuries are better on the negative financial news.
Citi
says it is going to sell $500 billion in assets. To whom and at what price are
the major questions facing traders this morning.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed
more than forecast in March as imports dropped by the most in more than six
years, reflecting the economic slowdown. The gap shrank to $58.2 billion, the
lowest this year, from a revised $61.7 billion in February, the Commerce
Department said today in Washington. The shortfall with China was the smallest
in two years.
We sold the balance of the Chico’s we needed to sell to reduce positions by one half. We also
sold the Sprint we bought yesterday
for a 5% profit as the shares gained today on short covering ahead to the
weekend. We also reduced positions in American
Eagle.
After we wrote about AIG raising their dividend while also raising capital we thought of Fifth Third Bank which we own doing the same. We then read some recent news on Fifth Third and saw that FITB paid its CEO $10 million last year which was $3 million more than he received the year before. That’s nuts. We have lost a chunk of money on FITB this year. Ugh. Whole Foods earnings come next week and we
are taking a loss to view it from the outside when that occurs. We were hoping
to sell it higher but given market conditions we think cash is a good place to
be. We have spread our selling out and that has cost us a few pennies but it
could have gone the other way.
Oil closed at $126.10 as
speculators continue to make a mockery of an orderly market. Gold gained to
finish at $888 and European bourse indexes closed lower. Treasuries were lower
in yield higher in price with the two-year at 2.17% and the ten-year at 3.75%.
The major measures ended the week on a sour note with the DJIA down 120 points at 12345. The S&P 500 dropped 10 points to 1388 and the NAZZ surrendered 6 to 2445. Breadth was 3/2 negative and volume continued light. There were 75 new highs and 85 new lows on the NYSE. The bears are back in control.
8 May 2008Thoughts Asian markets were mostly lower
overnight although China was up 2%. European bourse indexes are mostly
fractionally lower. Gold is up $6 and Oil has a $123 handle in the early going.
Treasuries are flat.
A client recently informed us that he was moving his account to a financial planner who promised to hedge any uncertainties in the market place by diversifying investments into gold and oil and real estate and bonds and stocks. The financial planner was from Merrill Lynch (you can substitute Citi, Wachovia, Morgan Stanley etc.). We wished the client well but asked the question why would a person trust Merrill’s advice when Merrill had just announced the loss of $10 billion of its own monies from investments that weren’t properly hedged. In that same vein of folks placing trust in ‘professionals’ who know the talk but maybe not the walk we found the following story interesting. State Street Corp., the largest money manager for institutions, may have to pay more than 12 times the $625 million it set aside for damages from lawsuits over losses from subprime-mortgage investments made for pension funds. Prudential Financial Inc., the second-largest U.S. life insurer, is suing the Boston-based company on behalf of more than 200 retirement plans, alleging that State Street inappropriately invested their money in risky securities. Three other companies filed similar actions. Neither side has disclosed potential losses, though State Street has reported that the value of assets ``adversely affected'' by the collapse in subprime mortgages fell 56 percent to $6.1 billion at the end of 2007 from $13.9 billion on June 30. That $7.8 billion decline represents the money manager's maximum legal exposure, according to Marcia Wagner, 45, a partner at Boston-based Wagner Law Group, which specializes in retirement fund and employee-benefit law. The cumulative loss in value serves as a ``ceiling'' in these cases, and the $625 million reserve State Street put aside in December is the company's ``floor,'' or minimum liability, Wagner said. The reserve is a ``lowball,'' Wagner said. ``We are talking very large in terms of damages,'' though they're unlikely to reach as high as the ceiling. ``To the extent plans were misled into purchasing something they were not authorized to purchase, they may have a fiduciary obligation to sue,'' said Wagner, who isn't representing the investment manager or plaintiffs. ``It's sue or be sued.'' ``They allowed bad investments, so they should be attempting to make the plans whole,'' Wagner said. ``State Street is quite exposed, especially if one of its affiliates rendered advice or marketed the funds to be something they were not.'' State Street will probably have to pay a minimum of $1 billion, according to William Fredericks, 46, attorney for plaintiff Unisystems Inc., a closely held New York publisher.``Based on public disclosures to date, damages should certainly be in the 10 figures,'' said the lawyer from Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann in New York.State Street's reserve is ``currently adequate to satisfy our legal exposure,'' spokeswoman Arlene Roberts said. A sum of $1 billion would represent 80 percent of the company's 2007 net income. Three corporate retirement and welfare
funds have asked the U.S. District Court in Manhattan to consider granting
class-action status, which allows others with similar claims to join a case.
We have the same stores sales
reports below on the four retailers we own. We think the short term will be
difficult for them but we own them because when we arrive at the other side of
the recession we are hoping that two or three of the four will provide above
average returnees. American Eagle Outfitters announced that total sales for the four
weeks ended May 3, 2008 increased 15% to $197.7 million, compared to $171.9
million for the four weeks ended May 5, 2007. Comparable store sales increased
2% for the month, compared to a 10% decrease for the same period last year.
Gap said on Thursday that sales at stores open at least a year fell a bigger-than-expected 6 percent in April, but the clothing retailer affirmed its full-year earnings outlook. By division, same-store sales were flat at North American Gap and Banana Republic stores and off 12 percent at Old Navy stores. At stores overseas, same-store sales fell 7 percent. For the company's fiscal first quarter, which also ended on May 3, net sales fell 5 percent to $3.38 billion while same-store sales fell 11 percent. Gap said it expects to post first-quarter earnings of 30 cents to 32 cents per share, including a $15 million benefit related to lower interest expense accruals. For the full year Gap reaffirmed
its outlook for profit in the range of $1.20 to $1.27 per share, but cited a
tough retail environment.
The Talbots on Thursday said its merchandise gross
margin is improving, offsetting weak first-quarter sales, and reaffirmed its
fiscal 2008 guidance. The company continues to expect earnings from continuing
operations to be between 47 cents to 52 cents per share excluding costs from
exiting its kids, men and U.K. businesses. It expects a net loss between 17
cents and 7 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average,
expect a profit of 35 cents per share, with estimates ranging between 8 cents
and 50 cents per share. Such estimates typically exclude one-time items. Talbots also said it is discussing increasing its working
capital line of credit with financial institutions. It expects to be in
compliance with all covenants of its acquisition term loan agreement for the
first quarter of fiscal 2008.
Women's apparel retailer Chico's
FAS said Thursday its same-store sales slid 15.5 percent in April, missing
Wall Street's expectations.Analysts
polled by Thomson Financial predicted a same-store sales decline of 12 percent.
The company said a shift in the timing of the Easter holiday helped April
same-store sales by about 2 percent to 2.5 percent. Total monthly sales dropped
4.5 percent to $142 million from $148.7 million a year earlier. Same-store sales
for the 13 weeks ended May 3 fell 17.5 percent, while total sales slipped 9.6
percent to $409.6 million. Chico's runs 611 Chico's front-line stores, 38
Chico's outlet stores, 318 White House Black Market front-line stores, 19 White
House Black Market outlet stores, 70 Soma Intimates front-line stores and 1
Soma Intimates outlet store.
We are buying Sprint
back in small amounts in our larger accounts. It has backed off $1 per
share from its short covering run of the last two days. The recent news on the
company has revived positive discussion of its value.
Gold ended at $882 up $12. Oil closed at $124.45 up 92 pennies. Treasuries were better with the two-year at 2.22% and the ten-year at 3.80%. A euro buys $1.53 and the dollar equals 103 yen. European bourse indexes were
mostly lower while Mexico and Brazil were higher.
The DJIA gained 50 points to close at 12865. The S&P 500 was up 5 points to 1398 and the NAZZ gained 12 to 2450. Breadth was 5/4 positive on the NYSE and the reverse on the NAZZ and volume was light. There were 75 new highs and 90 new lows on the NYSE. The bulls and bears tied today.
7 May 2008Thoughts Investors’ Intelligence reports 44% bulls and 32% bears for the latest week. Asian markets were mostly lower overnight with China down 4%, Hong Kong down 2% and Japan up fractionally. European bourse indexes are higher at midday. Gold is down $7 and Oil has a $121 handle. Treasuries are a bit higher in yield. Labor costs for the first quarter of 2008 were up 2.2% and Non-Farm productivity was up 2.6%. The first was lower than and the second higher than. And mortgage applications rose 15% in the latest reporting period. Cisco and Disney both
had better than earnings but after
trading higher on the initial news Cisco backed off to down a few pennies when
Chambers was cautious going forward.
Vallejo, California, officials voted to file for bankruptcy because the San Francisco suburb isn't able pay its bills after costs for police and firefighters soared and the housing market's slide cut into tax revenue. The city council's unanimous decision last night will make Vallejo the largest California city to file for bankruptcy and the first in the state to seek protection from creditors because it ran out of money to pay for basic services. The decision came after it failed to win salary concessions from labor unions. Standard & Poor's today lowered the rating on Vallejo's certificates of participation, a type of bond backed by its share of the state's vehicle license fees, to B from A, given the uncertainty of how the revenue source would be dealt with under bankruptcy, the rating company said in a statement. The city sold $16.8 million of the debt in 1999. Just like with sub-prime, S&P
was a day late and millions of dollars short in changing the rating.
Oil ended at $123.50 a new record.
Gold lost $5 to $872. Treasuries were firm at the close with the two-year at
2.32% and the ten-year at 3.86%. European bourse indexes closed higher as the
big drop in U.S. stocks didn’t occur until after those foreign markets closed.
At the bell the DJIA was on its lows for the day down 210 points at 12810. The S&P 500 closed down 26 points at 1392 and well below 1405 support now resistance and the NAZZ lost 50 points to 2435. Breadth was negative all day and ended 2.5/1 negative on the NYSE and NAZZ. Volume was light. There were 100 new highs and 70 new lows on the NYSE and the reverse again today on the NAZZ. The bears are back. Same store retail sales come in
the morning.
6 May 2008Thoughts Fannie Mae cabashed Turnaround Tuesday
for the bulls by announcing a larger than expected large loss and cutting its
dividend (expected) and saying it would seek to raise $6 billion in equity
capital. Actually the fact that the stock measures are only small fractions
lower suggests how inured the markets have become to expected negative financial news.
Asian markets were mostly higher
overnight while European bourse indexes are large fractions to over 1% lower.
Gold is up $6 to $880 in the early going in NYC and Oil has a $119 handle.
Treasuries are flat.
Cisco announces earnings after the close and that news may keep a
cap on today’s trading and will certainly influence tomorrow morning’s trading.
Fannie Mae opened $2 lower and is now trading positive after one
hour of trading. Yahoo opened $6
lower yesterday and then recovered $3 by day’s end. That action suggests that
bargain hunters/ buy side speculators are still in the markets.
Oil ended at $121.82 up $1.85.
Gold finished at $877 and European bourse indexes were lower at the close.
Treasuries gained a bit on the short end with the two-year at 2.37% and lost a
bit on the long end with the ten-year at 3.89%. Brazil was down and Mexico up.
The DJIA gained 55 points to close at 13025. The S&P 500 rose 11 points to 1418 and the NAZZ was up 20 points at 2483. Breadth was 3/2 positive on the NYSE and NAZZ but volume was again light. There were 105 new highs on 70 new lows on the NYSE and the numbers were reversed on the NAZZ. The bulls won the day.
5 May 2008
Cinco de Mayo (see below) 2008 Thoughts Microsoft walked away from
its Yahoo bid and YHOO shares are trading down $6 in the early going. We
are happy to have exited the soap opera with a scratch profit.
The WSJ is reporting that Deutsch
Telekom is considering a bid for Sprint.
You read it here first about three months ago. Unfortunately the timing of our
prescience was early and higher and we don’t own Sprint now and have no
interest in revisiting that tragedy for our balance sheet. Deutsch Telekom remains interesting to us but not at this time.
Asian markets closed mixed
overnight and European bourse indexes are small fractions lower. U.S. futures
are lower on the Yahoo/Microsoft blowup and stocks may be in need of a rest. Gold
is a few dollars higher and Oil has a $116 handle. And the hummingbirds
returned to the land of milk and honey this morning.
European bourse indexes closed
mixed. Brazil and Mexico were up 1%. Gold gained $16 to $874 and Oil jumped
$3.25 to $119.50. Treasuries were firm with the two-year at 2.40% and the
ten-year at 2.84%.
We
sold part of the Chico’s in our larger accounts. It is an outsized position after our recent sales
and while it is always fun to take profits it is also necessary to take losses
when reducing the percentage in stocks. We will be selling more shares tomorrow
as market conditions allow.
The DJIA closed down 90 points at 12970. The S&P 500 dropped 7 points to 1407 and the NAZZ was down 14 points at 2463. Breadth was 3/2 negative and volume was light. There were 50 new highs and 60 new lows on the NYSE. The
bears are still in the ball game unless the S&P 500 breaks strongly to the
upside above 1430.
Cinco de Mayo The holiday of Cinco de Mayo, The 5th Of May, commemorates the victory of the Mexican militia over the French army at The Battle of Puebla in 1862. It is primarily a regional holiday celebrated in the Mexican state capital city of Puebla and throughout the state of Puebla, with some limited recognition in other parts of Mexico, and especially in U.S. cities with a significant Mexican population. It is not, as many people think, Mexico's Independence Day, which is actually September 16.
The battle at Puebla in 1862 happened at a violent and chaotic time in Mexico's history. Mexico had finally gained independence from Spain in 1821 after a difficult and bloody struggle, and a number of internal political takeovers and wars, including the Mexican-American War (1846-1848) and the Mexican Civil War of 1858, had ruined the national economy. During this period of struggle Mexico had accumulated heavy debts to several nations, including Spain, England and France, who were demanding repayment. Similar debt to the U.S. was previously settled after the Mexican-American War. France was eager to expand its empire at that time, and used the debt issue to move forward with goals of establishing its own leadership in Mexico. Realizing France's intent of empire expansion, Spain and England withdrew their support. When Mexico finally stopped making any loan payments, France took action on its own to install Napoleon III's relative, Archduke Maximilian of Austria, as ruler of Mexico. Mexico Confronts the Invasion France invaded at the gulf coast of Mexico along the state of Veracruz (see map) and began to march toward Mexico City, a distance today of less than 600 miles. Although American President Abraham Lincoln was sympathetic to Mexico's cause, and for which he is honored in Mexico, the U.S. was involved in its own Civil War at the time and was unable to provide any direct assistance. Marching on toward Mexico City, the French army encountered strong resistance near Puebla at the Mexican forts of Loreto and Guadalupe. Lead by Mexican General Ignacio Zaragoza Seguin, a smaller, poorly armed militia estimated at 4,500 men was able to stop and defeat a well outfitted French army of 6,500 soldiers, which stopped the invasion of the country. The victory was a glorious moment for Mexican patriots, which at the time helped to develop a needed sense of national unity, and is the cause for the historical date's celebration. Unfortunately, the victory was short lived. Upon hearing the bad news, Napoleon III had found an excuse to send more troops overseas to try and invade Mexico again, even against the wishes of the French populace. 30,000 more troops and a full year later, the French were eventually able to depose the Mexican army, take over Mexico City and install Maximilian as the ruler of Mexico. Maximilian's rule of Mexico was also short lived, from 1864 to 1867. With the American Civil War now over, the U.S. began to provide more political and military assistance to Mexico to expel the French, after which Maximilian was executed by the Mexicans - his bullet riddled shirt is kept at the museum at Chapultepec Castle in Mexico City. So despite the eventual French invasion of Mexico City, Cinco de Mayo honors the bravery and victory of General Zaragoza's smaller, outnumbered militia at the Battle of Puebla in 1862. Today's Celebration For the most part, the holiday of Cinco de Mayo is more of a regional holiday in Mexico, celebrated most vigorously in the state of Puebla. There is some limited recognition of the holiday throughout the country with different levels of enthusiasm, but it's nothing like that found in Puebla. Celebrating Cinco de Mayo has become increasingly popular along the U.S.-Mexico border and in parts of the U.S. that have a high population of people with a Mexican heritage. In these areas the holiday is a celebration of Mexican culture, of food, music, beverage and customs unique to Mexico.
Commercial interests in the United States and Mexico have also had a hand in
promoting the holiday, with products and services focused on Mexican food,
beverages and festivities, with music playing a more visible role as well.
Several cities throughout the U.S. hold parades and concerts during the week
following up to May 5th, so that Cinco de Mayo has
become a bigger holiday north of the border than it is to the south, and being
adopted into the holiday calendar of more and more people every year.
2 May 2008Thoughts The April Employment number said 20,000 jobs were lost. Since the markets were expecting a job loss number of about 85,000 the stock measures rallied almost 1% on the news with the S&P 500 moving through the 1405-1410 resistance area to the upside. Stocks are overbought according to the technical analysts but that condition can remain for a while without dire consequences. The important fact at this juncture is to remember how we
all felt two months ago and not to think that nirvana has arrived in the U.S.
economy. The talking/writing heads now realize the problems and are discussing
them ad nauseum and their acknowledgement and
Washington’s action is at least the first step to resolution. We will be selling the rally today since our accounts are
back to even or above for the year. It is May after all.
Asian market are higher by 1% as are
European bourses and Gold has recovered $5 to $855 while Oil has a $114 handle
in the early going. The dollar is rallying and Treasuries’ yields are rising
with the two-year at 2.50%.
Microsoft is rumored to be going to make a hostile bid for Yahoo this week-end.
OOPS! Bank of America, which in January said it would buy Countrywide Financial, said there was
no assurance any of the mortgage lender's outstanding debt would be redeemed,
assumed or guaranteed, according to a regulatory filing. Bank of America said
Countrywide had outstanding debt of about $97.23 billion as of Dec 31,
including Federal Home Loan Bank advances to Countrywide Bank of about $47.68
billion, which it expects will remain outstanding until repaid by Countrywide
Bank, in the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
In the “it ain’t over till it’s over” Department” the Fed increased its lending facility today which suggests that some bank or banks have a continuing problem? `Central banks have continued to work together and to consult regularly
on liquidity conditions in financial markets. In view of the persistent
liquidity pressures in some term funding markets, the European Central Bank,
the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing an expansion of
their liquidity measures. Federal Reserve Actions The Federal Reserve
announced today an increase in the amounts auctioned to eligible depository
institutions under its biweekly Term Auction Facility (TAF) from $50 billion to
$75 billion, beginning with the auction on May 5. This increase will bring the
amounts outstanding under the TAF to $150 billion. In conjunction with the
increase in the size of the TAF, the Federal Open Market Committee has
authorized further increases in its existing temporary reciprocal currency arrangements
with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). These
arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to $50 billion and $12
billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, representing increases of $20
billion and $6 billion. The FOMC extended the term of these reciprocal currency arrangements
through January 30, 2009. In
addition, the Federal Open Market Committee authorized an expansion of the
collateral that can be pledged in the Federal Reserve's Schedule 2 Term
Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) auctions. Primary dealers may now pledge
AAA/Aaa-rated asset-backed securities, in addition to
already eligible residential- and commercial-mortgage-backed securities and agency
collateralized mortgage obligations, beginning with the Schedule 2 TSLF auction
to be announced on May 7, 2008 and to settle on May 9, 2008. The wider pool of
collateral should promote improved financing conditions in a broader range of financial markets.
Treasury securities, agency securities, and agency mortgage-backed securities
continue to be eligible as collateral in Schedule 1 TSLF auctions.''
We sold Microsoft,
GE, CBS, Cisco, Liz, Intel, Symantec, EMC, and Cabelas for gains. We sold Dell for a loss.
We have to leave early for a graduation party. At 12 noon the Major measures had surrendered all of their gains of the morning and were negative. There may be a rally this afternoon which would set the markets up for another gain Monday. If not, who knows? We have raised a good
deal of cash and will continue to do so next week if the rally continues.
1 May 2008 May Day (see end of post) 2008 Thoughts You can’t run a middle-class
democracy with a multimillionaire press corps. Workers of the world have united
close markets to celebrate May Day. Japan was open overnight and closed lower
and in Europe only London is trading and it is higher. Gold is down $2 and oil
has a $113 handle. Treasuries are flat as the trading day begins.
Starbucks had a dismal report last night but having signaled the
report last week the shares are trading flat.
Microsoft has signaled it is willing to go to $33 but the folks at Yahoo are supposedly suggesting that
above $35 is needed for a deal. Of course if the deal falls through YHOO’s share price will drop by three times the difference
in price.
Symantec reported revenue of $1.5
billion up 13 percent over the comparable period a year ago. For the fiscal
year revenue was $5.8 billion. 2008 fiscal year revenue grew 13 percent
compared to 2007. Earnings beat analysts’ estimates and the company gave a
positive outlook going forward. The share price is up $2 to $19. We think the
shares will move into the mid $20s on this news.
Timberland beats by $0.14
reporting earnings of $0.31 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14
better than the First Call consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 1.2% year/year
to $340.4 million vs. the $316.3 million consensus. The shares jumped $2 on the news
and we took our profit.
Starbucks said Wednesday its fiscal second-quarter profit sank 28 percent. The coffee purveyor slashed 30 additional store openings from its already-scaled-back plan for 2008 and said it will open fewer than 400 stores per year in 2009 through 2011. International openings will increase at a far faster clip, though, with 975 this year and a projected 1,300 in 2011. Starbucks expects to have 21,500 stores worldwide by the end of fiscal 2011. The company forecast earnings of 90 cents to $1 per share in 2009, $1.10 to $1.20 per share in 2010, and $1.35 to $1.50 in 2011, predicated on a 20 percent average rise in sales each year internationally but just 6 percent growth in the U.S. We sold the shares we bought two days ago for a $1 gain.
We bought JDS Uniphase at $11.88 in accounts that own Motorola. Shares of JDS Uniphase Corp. dropped $2.30 per share this morning after JDSU said it expected fiscal fourth-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates and an analyst lowered his rating. The stock shed $2.02, or 14.1 percent, to $12.29 after the opening bell. To refresh memories JDSU was the Apple of the tech boom of the late 1990s. JDS Uniphase provides communications test
and measurement solutions, and optical products. The company operates in four
segments: Optical Communications, Communications Test and Measurement, Advanced
Optical Technologies, and Commercial Lasers. The Optical Communications segment
provides components, modules, and subsystems used by communications equipment
providers for telecommunications and enterprise data communications. Its
products include transmitters, receivers, amplifiers, ROADMS, optical
transceivers, multiplexers and demultiplexers,
switches, optical performance monitors and couplers, splitters, and
circulators. The Communications Test and Measurement segment provides a
portfolio of instruments, systems, and services to enable the design,
deployment, and maintenance of communication equipment and networks. It offers
test tools and platforms for optical transport networks, digital subscriber
line services, data networks, cable networks, digital video broadcast, and
fiber characterization services. The Advanced Optical Technologies segment
provides optical solutions for security and decorative applications, and
thin-film coatings for a range of public and private sector markets. Its
product applications include computer-driven projectors, intelligent lighting
systems, photocopiers, facsimile machines, scanners, security products, and
decorative surface treatments. The Commercial Lasers segment provides
industrial diode lasers, fiber lasers, gas lasers, solid-state lasers, and
photonic power delivery systems. The company markets its products primarily to
service and cable providers, network equipment manufacturers, original
equipment manufacturers, distributors, and strategic partners in North America,
Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It has a strategic alliance with SICPA for its
light interference pigments, which are used to provide security features in
currency.
The MSFT/Yahoo soap opera is more than we wish to risk
now that the accounts are back to year end values. The upside/downside in Yahoo
is tilted towards the downside and so we
sold Yahoo for a $1 gain. We will hold MSFT because we think that either
way the shares are attractive.
We reduced United Foods in many accounts realizing a $1 to over $2 profit on the trade. Hain
Foods which is also a natural foods company announces earnings on Monday and
those earnings are projected to be disappointing. HAIN share price is down from
$34 to $25 which is exactly the action that occurred in UNFI before its last
quarter report. When UNFI reported the shares dropped another $7 and we bought.
We may use the money realized from the UNFI to initiate a position in HAIN if
it sells off further on any bad news.
We sold Saks for a
$1 gain to reduce our exposure to retail. The basic attraction of
SKS is as a takeover target and we would rather concentrate on CHS and AEO.
Raising cash as the S&P 500 ticks at 1405 which is major
resistance is a prudent action. Most accounts are back above year end values
which represents a 15% gain from the nadir in January and we are willing to forego some gain
to relax a bit after the last few months.
Oil settled at $112.25 down $1.25
and Gold surrendered another $14 to finish at $850. Treasuries weakened with
the two-year at 2.36% and the ten-year at 3.76%. The yen was 103 to the dollar
and it takes $154 to buy a euro today.
The DJIA closed up 190 points at 13010. The S&P 500 rose 25 points to 1410 and the NAZZ jumped 70 points to 2480. Breadth was only 2/1 positive and volume was better but not enough with the NAZZ at only 2.2 billion and the NYSE a tad under 4 billion share. New highs were 70 and new lows 80 on the NYSE. The bears won the day. The
monthly Employment Report comes tomorrow morning and that will be the focus of
trading for at least the first few hours.
May Day 1886 May 1, 1886, became historic. On that
day thousands of workers in the larger industrial cities poured into the
streets, demanding eight hours. About 340,000 took part in demonstrations in
Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Baltimore, Washington, New
York, Philadelphia, Boston and other places. Of these nearly 200,000 actually
went out on strike. About 42,000 won the eight-hour day. Another 150,000 got a
shorter day than they had had before. Chicago workers supported the movement most
vigorously. To combat labor organization and activity, Chicago employers
organized and acted. Pinkerton detectives and special deputies were in
evidence. Policemen were swinging billies
and breading up knots of workers on street corners. At the factory gates of McCormick Harvester
Co., where a strike meeting was being held on May 3, policemen swung their
clubs and then fired into the running strikers....The speaker at the meeting
was August Spies, a member of the Central Labor Union, which had supported the
May First strike. He was also a member of a militant labor group that was at
the time influential in the Chicago Labor movement. Six workers were killed that
day and many wounded. Anger ran high through the Chicago labor
movement. About 3,000 attended a protest meeting the next day at Haymarket
Square....The Chicago press reported the speeches were less
"inflammatory" than usual. Mayor Carter H. Harrison who was present
testified later that the meeting was "peaceable." But as it was about
to adjourn, policement swooped down and ordered the
audience to disperse. Then some unknown person threw a bomb. It exploded,
killing a police sergeant and knocking several core to the ground. The police
opened fire. At the end of the day, seven policemen and four workers lay dead. At once several Chicago labor leaders were
rounded up and thrown in jail. Eight of these finally came to trial--Albert
Parsons, August Spies, Louis Lingg, George Engel,
Michael Schwab, Samuel Fieldon, Adolph Fischer and
Oscar Neebe. The presiding judge helped pick the jury
which was strongly anti-labor and hostile to the defendants. The trial lasted
63 days. All of the men were declared guilty of murder. All were given death
sentences, except Neebe who got a 15-year prison
sentence. A nationwide defense campaign won wide
popular favor...At the last moment, as a result of widespread protests, the
Governor of Illinois communted to life imprisonment
the sentences of Fieldon and Schwab. It was reported
that Lingg "committed suicide" in his cell. On November 11, Albert Parsons, August
Spies, Adolph Fischer and George Engel were hanged. On the gallows Spies cried,
"There will be a time when our silence will be more powerful than the
voices you strangle today." Straightway the defense movement, now led by
Albert Parsons' widow, Lucy Parsons, turned to efforts to have the remaining
three men freed. Fieldon, Schwab and Neebe were finally pardoned by Governor Altgeld
in 1893. He was fully convinced, he said, of the innocence of all the eight
men. Out of the eight-hour struggle which
culminated in the strike of May 1, 1886, and its aftermath, the Haymarket
tragedy, came international May Day. In Paris, France, on July 14, 1889,
leaders from organized proletarian movements in many countries came together to
form once more an international association of workers....At the first congress
of the Second International, delegates listened to the story related by the
United States representatives, considered a request from the American
Federation of Labor for support of their eight-hour fight, and voted to make
May 1, 1890, a day for an international eight-hour day demonstration. Demand for the eight-hour day became the main slogan of the
international May Day celebrations. At a later congress, the International
extended the purpose of the day to include wider labor demands and world peace.
***** Origins of May Day
from Wikipedia: The earliest May Day celebrations appeared in pre-Christian Europe, as in the Celtic celebration of Beltane, and the Walpurgis Night of the Germanic countries. Many pre-Christian indigenous celebrations were eventually banned or Christianized during the process of Christianization in Europe. As a result, a more secular version of the holiday continued to be observed in the schools and churches of Europe well into the 20th century. In this form, May Day may be b |