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Lemley Yarling Management Co
15624 Lemley Drive
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Bud: 312-925-5248

Comments on activity in client accounts

13 October 2017

During the week we took small profits in Abercrombie, American Eagle, Cheesecake Factory, QUALCOMM, and Chicago Bridge and sold the XOP Oil SPDRS for a scratch. We added to Chico's in some accounts and bought Apache Oil and AT&T when they dropped.

We were too heavy in retail and also wanted to raise cash. The longer the markets meander higher the greater the risk. We have been wrong since Trump was elected- our political view coloring our investing decisions- which is never a good thing. But Trump is an accident waiting to happen and as with all things Trump when the accident occurs it is going to be HUUUUGGGGGGEEEEE.

Rite Aid nosedived last Friday on news/rumors that Amazon is going to put all drugstores/pharmacies out of business. we know we should just sell all our stocks and place our money in Amazon but 50 years in the business and remembrances of 1974, 1982, 1987, 1990, 2000, and 2008 remain in our psyche and inhibit a carefree attitude towards the market.

Obviously our caution and value approach has cost our clients this year. As in the past we think consistency our approach will eventually be rewarded.

Be careful out there kids- it is paraskevidekatriaphobia day!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friday_the_13th

Positive discussion of GE

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112902-general-electric-returning-industrial-roots

*****

4 October 2017

We are heading to Minneapolis to visit RBC, our clearing broker, for the week and so our post is early and short.

Markets are meandering and that may help in working off the overbought condition but only time will tell.

Some reading material:

Macy's: 6.8% yield

Macy's is deep into what seems sure to be its third straight year of declining comps. The wheels aren't falling off this iconic retailing business, though. In fact, executives recently affirmed full-year guidance that calls for comps to dip by between 2% and 3%, compared to a 2.9% slump in 2016.

Cash flow isn't a problem, either, with the business generating $900 million of free cash flow last year, easily covering the $459 million it paid in dividends. Macy's is augmenting that financial strength by selling off pieces of its valuable real estate portfolio, and that move might contribute to impressive gains for long-term shareholders -- assuming its core business begins to expand again in 2018.

Given their sluggish sales momentum, an investment in any of these retailers is risky, especially heading into a holiday season that might bring unprecedented disruption to the industry as shoppers embrace e-commerce spending. Risk-tolerant income investors can get paid well for that exposure, though, in the form of protected dividends and a decent chance that these retailers will outperform Wall Street's low expectations.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/29/3-retailing-stocks-to-buy-yielding-more-than-4.aspx?yptr=yahoo

*****

6 Reasons to be buying Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/10/02/6-reasons-ive-been-aggressively-buying-teva-pharma.aspx

The GOP Tax Plan Shows Signs of Being Created By One Former Hedge Manager and One Future Hedge Fund Manager

https://dealbreaker.com/2017/09/the-gop-tax-plan-shows-signs-of-being-created-by-one-former-hedge-manager-and-one-future-hedge-fund-manager/

*****

Priorities:

The CHIP program that provides health care to 9 million children was not renewed by Congress by October 1. It costs about $14 billion a year. Money well spent. On the same day Congress let the program expire Secretary of Energy Rick Perry authorized up to $3.7 billion in taxpayer-backed loan guarantees to finish building the last remaining new nuclear plant under construction in this country.

This loan, to the Southern Company's Vogtle plant in Georgia, is on top of $8.3 billion in previous federal loan guarantees for the troubled $25-billion nuclear plant. That means if — or, rather, when — the project goes belly up, U.S. taxpayers will have to bail out Southern Company and its partners with a record-breaking $12 billion.

https://thinkprogress.org/perry-loan-guarantee-vogtle-d0772a872343/

Three Important Points about the Republican Tax Plan

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-02/three-important-points-about-the-republican-tax-plan

G.M. and Ford Lay Out Plans to Expand Electric Models

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/02/business/general-motors-electric-cars.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Mars will have to wait.

https://www.benzinga.com/news/17/10/10128154/tesla-attributes-q3-model-3-delivery-miss-to-production-bottlenecks

Chipotle Back At $300 Area: Buy, Sell Or Hold?

https://www.benzinga.com/news/17/10/10127024/chipotle-back-at-300-area-buy-sell-or-hold

Goldman Sachs Might Be Desperate Enough To Start Trading Bitcoin

https://dealbreaker.com/2017/10/goldman-sachs-might-be-desperate-enough-to-start-trading-bitcoin/

 


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