February 24, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
are now all cash having sold Walgreen and Ford warrants on Wednesday.
*****
February 21, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
The
DJIA passed through 13000 on the upside and we sold Nokia, Deutsch Telekom and
AT&T. We still own Walgreen and Ford warrants both of which we plan to
hold. A correction is still in our cards and we will wait
for it to occur- from whatever level – before we recommit.
*****
February 17, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
raised more cash this week and sold/took profits in GE, Cisco, Huntington Bank,
American Eagle, Ford common, Hewlett Packard, and Chico’s. We also sold the GM warrants
because the position- upon reflection- was too large and our exposure to autos
is well taken care of by our Ford warrants. We expect that markets to
eventually move higher but a correction of 10% would not
surprise us and after the 25% move off the October 3 bottom a rest- if not
more- is certainly warranted.
*****
February 10, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
sold The Hartford, Morgan Stanley, Nvdia and Dell during the week. We also
added a few shares of Nokia and more GM “A” and “B” warrants.
Morgan
Stanley and The Hartford both reported decent numbers and we used the pop in
both to realize profits and raise cash in accounts. To maintain financial exposure
with less individual risk (but also less reward) we placed the Hartford money
in the SPDR Financial ETF (XLF).
Nvdia
and Dell earnings come next week and we would rather be out than in for them
and so we sold for profits.
We
were in an out of BankAmerica for a scratch.
We
sold Alcatel Lucent on Friday when it popped on earnings. We won’t be back.
Bullish
sentiment is increasing and even Perma-Bear Nouriel Roubini is suggesting
higher stock prices. Hopefully he is right but for now the markets need and may
get a pause or retrenchment.
Markets
tanked Friday over Greek bailout worries. The U. S. gave $180 billion to one
company to save the system in 2008 and now traders and talking heads are
worrying about whether Greece will get $180 billion. Germany should just write
a check but having meetings all over Europe and giving interviews and looking
worried is much more fun. For comparison, the GDP of California is 7 times that
of Greece. California is still working through its financial problems with
smoke and mirrors but the financial press yawns. Georgia, North Carolina,
Michigan and Massachusetts individually have a greater GDP than Greece and some
have their own fiscal problems. Actually Michigan will have a surplus this year
after predictions of gloom. Finances in Greece are important to Greeks. The
rest of the world –not so much- but traders need to trade and news folks need
bad news to attract viewers. And the beat goes on.
The
Economic numbers have been positive with February Employment Reporting 250,000
net new employed in January and just yesterday weekly new jobless claims
reportedly dropped to 355,000. We think the economy will continue to recover
but as the markets rise we will be moving money from more volatile to less
volatile stocks. The Ford and GM warrants give us enough volatility.
*****
February 3, 2012
February 1, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
Royal Bank of Canada
http://www.rbccorrespondentservices.com/partner/aboutus/cid-110578.html
Through Royal Bank of
Canada (RBC) — one of North America’s largest and healthiest financial
institutions — RBC Correspondent Services offers the strength and stability
you require in a financial partner. Royal Bank of Canada’s credit ratings
are among the highest of all financial institutions: S&P: AA-(positive);
Moody’s: Aa1; Fitch: AA; DBRS: AA (as of August 26, 2011). RBC is ranked
the safest bank in Canada and the safest in North America for the second
year in a row (Global Finance, October 2010 and 2011). Based on market
cap, RBC is the 11th largest bank in the world and the fifth largest in
North America. (Bloomberg as of September 8, 2011). RBC employs more than
74,000 full-and part-time employees who serve more than 15 million
personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices
in Canada, the U.S. and 53 other countries. RBC’s financial strength, sound
risk management policies, strong balance sheet and diversified business mix
have enabled it to withstand many of the market shocks and pressures.
*****
We took our 30% profit in
BankAmerica and placed part of the
proceeds in the General Motors B warrant which give the right to buy GM stock
as $18.33 through July 9, 2019.
*****
Morgan Stanley, owner of the
world’s largest brokerage, was upgraded to a “buy” rating by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts
who said the firm may benefit from improvement in the trading environment.
Morgan Stanley was raised from “neutral” and placed on
the “conviction list” of top recommendations, the analysts, led by Richard Ramsden, wrote 1/29 in a note
to investors.
They also said the shares may rise to $23 in 12 months,
24 percent above the closing price on Jan. 27.
Morgan Stanley posted the only increase in trading
revenue excluding accounting gains among the five largest Wall Street banks in
2011, making progress toward Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Gorman’s goal of boosting market
share. The New York-based firm had per-share losses in two of the past three
quarters as it took charges to eliminate swap contracts purchased from MBIA Inc. (MBI)
and to convert Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.’s preferred stake to common
shares.
Revenue from Morgan Stanley’s investment banking and
trading division will probably rise 13 percent in 2012, excluding one-time
items, to $17.4 billion as credit spreads tighten and activity levels increase
from a “cyclically depressed” second half of 2011, the analysts estimated.
Profitability in that unit may benefit from cost-cutting and lower deferred
compensation expenses, they wrote.
The “key concern” for Morgan Stanley is retaining top
talent after it reduced compensation and increased deferrals for last year, the
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. The firm cut pay for senior bankers and traders
by an average of 20 percent to 30 percent and capped immediate cash bonuses at
$125,000, according to people briefed on the plans.
The company will also benefit from lower integration
costs at its Morgan Stanley Smith Barney retail brokerage, a joint venture with
Citigroup Inc. with more than 17,000 advisers, the analysts said. Morgan
Stanley will likely receive approval from regulators to buy an additional 14
percent stake in May, increasing ownership to 65 percent, a purchase that will
probably cost $2.7 billion, they wrote.
Morgan Stanley rose 1 cent to $18.57 at 10:10 a.m. in New
York trading. The shares have gained 23 percent this year, after dropping 44
percent in 2011.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/morgan-stanley-upgraded-to-conviction-buy-by-goldman-sachs.html?cmpid=yhoo
*****
http://www.worldometers.info/
*****
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Summary of Business Continuity Plan