Washington’s Birthday February 22, 2013
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
Just watching.
*****
February 15, 2013
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We added Coach to large accounts. This week markets
held and moved grudgingly higher.
*****
Warren
Buffet bought Heinz at 20 times earnings. Wonder why he didn’t buy it at ten
times earnings in 2009.
*****
Europe
was lower this week as austerity has not led to higher GDP. Hey kids, Keynes is
right but the Know Nothings * don’t want to hear it.
European
markets are broadly lower following the release of disappointing GDP reports
across the continent. Looking at individual reports:
Germany's
preliminary fourth quarter GDP reading came in at -0.6%, worse than the -0.5%
expected by the market. Meanwhile, the full-year 2012 reading pointed to growth
of 0.7%.
In
France, preliminary fourth quarter GDP was reported at -0.3%, worse than the
downtick of 0.2% expected by the general consensus. Additionally, the country's
nonfarm payrolls declined 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, in-line with expectations.
Italy's
fourth quarter GDP contracted 0.9% while the market expected a decline of 0.6%.
Greek
GDP dropped 6.0% during the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, unemployment climbed to
27%.
The
weak regional GDP readings resulted in a fourth quarter Eurozone GDP
contraction of 0.6%. This was worse than the decline of 0.4% expected by the
general consensus.
Also
of note, Spanish industrial new orders dropped 3.1% year-over-year while a
decline of 1.0% was expected.
*****
General Motors
made money in North America and Asia and lost a bundle in Europe as it nearly
doubled last year's fourth-quarter net profit. For the full year, GM earned
$4.9 billion, or $2.92 per share. That was down from $7.6 billion, or $4.58 per
share, in 2011. The difference was largely due to one-time items. Excluding
those, GM made $2.60 per share last year. Revenue for the year rose 1 percent
to $152.3 billion. The 2012 earnings also fell short of Wall Street
expectations. Analysts predicted $3.23 per share on revenue of $151.1 billion. …..
GM
also announced that its union workers would each get $6,750 in profit-sharing
checks next month because of the strong performance in North America. In 2011,
the company and the United Auto Workers agreed to profit-sharing instead of pay
raises. Last year UAW workers got checks for $7,000.
*The
Know Nothing was a political movement by the nativist
American political faction of the 1850s, characterized by political xenophobia, anti-Catholic
sentiment, (now
anti-Latino/Islam) and occasional bouts of violence against the groups
the nativists targeted. It was empowered by popular fears that the
country was being overwhelmed by German and Irish Catholic immigrants,
who were often regarded as hostile to republican values and controlled by the Pope (Pius IX) in Rome. Mainly active
from 1854 to 1856, it strove to curb immigration and naturalization, though its efforts met with little success.
Membership was limited to Protestant males of British American lineage. There were few prominent leaders, and the
largely middle-class and entirely Protestant membership fragmented over the
issue of slavery.
Nativists
had become active in politics in New York in 1843 as the American Republican Party. It spread to nearby states as the Native American
Party (which appealed to native-born white citizens) and won a few thousand
votes in 1844. Historian Tyler Anbinder warns, however, that the "Native
American" party should not be confused with the Know-Nothings because the
two different groups ran separate tickets in the same elections in the 1850s.[1]
In
the early 1850s numerous anti-Catholic secret orders grew up, of which the
"Order of United Americans"[2] and the Order of the Star Spangled Banner came to be the most important. They merged in New
York in the early 1850s as a secret order that quickly spread across the North,
reaching Protestants, especially those who were lower middle class or skilled
workmen. Outsiders called them "Know-Nothings" and the name stuck. In
1855 the Know-Nothings first entered politics under the American Party label.[3] The origin of the "Know Nothing" term was
in the semi-secret organization of the party. When a member was asked about its
activities, he was supposed to reply, "I know nothing".[4]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing
February 8, 2013
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
sold Apple for a small profit. We also reduced position in Intel, and Cisco and
added Aéropostale and Huntington Banks. We remain 30% invested. Investors
Intelligence has Bulls at 54%, the highest since least year at this time and
Bears at 24% the lowest since last May. With the Sequester Show on the horizon
we don’t know whether this is a case of the media crying Wolf or much ado about
nothing.
We
are watching.
*****
February 1, 2013
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
added Dow, Intel, Cisco and Merck this week. All yield close to 4% and we have
been trading Intel and Cisco for the past three years. They didn’t pull back
much but we want some exposure as the markets test the all-time highs. We
bought Dow and Merck when they pulled back on disappointing earnings. We also
repurchased Alcoa and Nvdia and added Joseph A Bank Clothiers to some larger
accounts when it plunged 20% on disappointing fourth quarter news. We are about
40% invested in the Model and more than in smaller accounts /less than in
larger accounts.
We
also made a losing traded in Research in Motion which only serves to remind
that we are not immune to making boneheaded decisions.
There
may be a swoosh move higher on a piercing of the high. Our time frame for a
pullback has been extended and we want to own some quality issues for trading
potential sacrificing big gains for peace of mind.
*****
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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