27 May 2016

We continue to watch the markets with no real conviction on direction. As a result we remain in cash. The economy is moving along with slow growth and the Fed is set to raise interest rates to what would still be considered historically low rates.

The banks will be able to make a bit more money as they raise the prime rate (a rate with no meaning except for retail borrowers) but do nothing to help retail savers by raising C/D rates to still penurious low levels.

In case you are interested: from Bloomberg-The U.S. economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than previously estimated, reflecting less damage from trade and inventories.

Gross domestic product rose at a 0.8 percent annualized rate in the three months ended in March, the smallest gain in a year, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. That compares with the 0.5 percent advance the government reported last month.

The figures do little to alter views of the third consecutive sluggish start to the year, and could portend a tougher slog in the second quarter as businesses work to continue to pare stockpiles. At the same time, household income gains were stronger than previously reported as the labor market strengthened, which will help support consumer spending.

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20 May 2016

We have been traveling this week visiting clients and planning to attend Tyler's graduation party on Sunday. We remain all cash in accounts.

Enjoy!

13 May 2016

Retail stocks were abandoned this week with Gap and Nordstrom dropping 20% and Macys 10% from already depressed levels as they announced first quarter results. The talking heads suggest that no one is ever going to shop in stores again; rather they will buy the junk that Walmart and Amazon sell on line. The big boys and girls may be shorting these issues and with our cautious market outlook we are inclined to stand aside for now. Gurus and talking heads are pushing a never retail line and we have learned not to stand in front of a freight train.

Oil issues have backed off their March highs but physical oil is holding $45. It would be constructive for oil to drop below $40. If it does we may begin tiptoeing back into the oil issues we recently sold.

Apple remains under pressure while the institution can't get enough of Amazon at a zillion times earnings. Amazon is a great company and it is expensive. But buying it uses up a lot of cash and since everyone is recommending it the folks who have to be in the market are willing to follow the crowds.

We remain on the sidelines.

For those who want to read an interesting essay we present to following:

The Vultures' Vultures: How a New Hedge-Fund Strategy Is Corrupting Washington

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vulture-fund-lobbying_us_57350001e4b077d4d6f2a374

8 May 2016

We sold our last remaining stock, Whole Foods, after announced results were less than stupendous.

We are now fully cash in accounts and continue to watch the action. A 5% pullback in the S&P 500 to 1800 and/or a drop to $36 in oil would encourage us to become interested again.

Until then we will enjoy spring in the land of milk and honey.,

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