- Halloween 2001
No treats yesterday, only tricks as the markets opened down and stayed down
all day. We added some Sun Microsystems to larger accounts and would add more
if SUNW drops to $8.50 per share. We bought a little Cisco (CSCO) in trading
accounts, Bought a bunch more Tellabs at $13.75 for larger accounts, and
bought SBC in those accounts where we sold Bellsouth last week. Because the
market is now down 400 points in two days we think we are going to get a
sellable rally soon. Mutual Fund tax year end is tomorrow. How appropriate
it's Halloween. We will keep hoping for some treats in the form of a rally in
a few of our stocks. We saw today that General Motors Acceptance Corp sold
some 15 year maturity bonds at a 7.50% yield. Sounds good since we are only
getting 2.25% on our cash. But 15 year bonds will drop15% in value on a 1%
interest rate move higher. Be careful and don't chase yield. We are staying
- 30 October 2001
Oops! No rally yesterday, but kept the Tellabs, (TLAB), purchased at $15.35
per share, and also purchased EMC, (EMC) , at $13.27. These were purchased in
our account and a few trading accounts. All other accounts had no activity
and we don't expect to be doing anything much until a week or two from now.
Since we plan on posting more than once a day when conditions warrant, don't
forget to hit your refresh button. We also have posted the Model Portfolio as
it looked on 10/26/2001. So if it's not on your Model site refresh that
page. Expect sell off to continue this AM and then would expect a rally
thru Halloween. Time for the big guys to try and "mark up" their portfolios
for month end.
- 29 October 2001
The markets opened lower today , we would use the opportunity if we were in a trading
mood to buy Tellabs for a several point up move over the next few days.
We are doing so after this post in
- 29 October 2001
We purchased Lucent at under $7 and Palm at $2.50 per share on Friday
for most accounts in small amounts. Both are down stupendously from
their two year highs. We know we planned to keep our powder dry
but we used funds from our Broadwing reduction last week. We have
absolutely no idea what is going to happen today or this week so
we will probably be spectators for today.
- 27 & 28 October 2001
The wind has died and the weather has freshened with bright sun
and cool temperatures. Time to get outside and chop wood and move
hay. In reviewing the accounts Saturday morning we were pleased
with our positions. We currently own Broadwing, EMC, Lucent, Palm,
SunMicrosystems, and Tellabs in most accounts with some Barnes&Noble.com
in a few accounts. Yet we are no more than 20% invested in stocks
in larger accounts and less than 50% invested in most small accounts.
Well positioned for rally or pullback.
- 26 October 2001
The markets had a strong reversal day yesterday which means that
today should be an up day also. Maybe the mutual fund tax selling
is over for the year. We remain wary and are comfortable with our
cash. This "war" is not like 1990.
- 25 October 2001
We raised cash today by selling AT&T Wireless (AWE) for no gain,
but it was up 20% in two days. Since we've been wanting to get back
to mostly cash we used this opportunity. We also sold some of the
Broadwing (BRW) we bought last week to get our position back to
a more realistic level in accounts. Sometimes when stocks we like
drop on so-so news we get carried away by wanting to prove we are
right. We buy too much as if we by ourselves can staunch the downswing.
We like BRW but we think we will have a chance to buy more lower
-unfortunately. Finally, we also traded out of the EMC we bought
two days ago for a ten percent profit.
One commentator we respect remarked today that the markets would
be a lot higher if the anthrax scare weren't out there. WE agree.
The markets would also be higher if September 11 hadn't occurred.
But it did occur and we think the markets and investors haven't
processed the implications. We know we haven''t. Until we do we
will be risk averse and quicker than usual on the trigger. Investing
and living are no longer a game. At least for now.
- 24 October 2001
The stock market meandered yesterday with no real trend evident.
The markets are back to their pre-September 11 pattern of a seemingly
strong up day with no follow through the next. When Goldman Sachs
and Merril Lynch turn on a big cap like SBC and cause a two day
12% drop, we take notice. Keep your powder dry today.
- 23 October 2001
We view the rally yesterday as temporary. We won't be adding to
positions, and will trade out of the few that we have if any of
them have big up moves.
- 22 October 2001
With no bad news from the war front, and the anthrax news assuming
the media overkill of the Condit-Levy affair, the markets will probably
start concentrating on earnings and the hoped for fiscal stimulus.
We are now 20% to 30% in stocks in many accounts, FOR A RALLY ONLY,
and our views are subject to change without notice.