15 December 2023

This is our last post till January. At 80 we are slowing down. Moreover, we aren't going to change our attitude in the next two weeks as we enter the Holiday slow down and, hopefully, further rally period.

Beginning the first week of December we decided to become fully invested in all our accounts because the market action suggested a decent rally in the out of favor stocks we like to trade at year end. We were rewarded for our perspicacity and are going to keep the faith into the new year. We have and will trade drops and pops and we have taken some money off the table in stocks that jumped 40% and more in the last few months. Our very large accounts are beginning to have their cash positions rebuilt but we are remaining all in the smaller more volatile accounts.

With accounts up 20% to over 30% for the year we attribute the gains to our trading/timing and a lot of luck.

Happy Holidays to all. It would be nice to say Peace on Earth but we know that unfortunately that wish is not in the cards.

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8 December 2023

The markets are rotating with the Super Seven up and down while inching higher. The left behinds are moving higher as selling pressure abates and bargain hunters arrive.

By Thursday we were fully invested in all accounts but we are taking profits when a stock pops on news. Everything is an anchovy at this time of year.

Paramount+ rose 10% today on buyout news. Our take is that the controlling owner Shari Redstone learned from her father and is not going to let it go for less than $40 a share. We think that price is too expensive for any company but an Apple/Google etc. which the Government would oppose. We were happy to take a 5 day 10% profit and look for another year end purchase. We also sold Warner Discovery for a 5% profit as it rose in sympathy. Thursday, we sold Foot Locker and Kohl's for gains to reduce our retail positions.

With accounts up 15% to 25% we are inclined to be quicker on the trigger.

Until next week, stay warm.

*****

When morality comes up against profit, it is seldom that profit loses.

Shirley Chisholm

Why oil fluctuates:

November

DUBAI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed on Sunday they would continue with their additional voluntary oil output cuts until the end of the year as concerns over demand and economic growth continue to weigh on crude markets.

Both countries said their cuts would be reviewed next month to consider extending, deepening or increasing it.

Saudi Arabia confirmed it would continue with its additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) translating into a production of around 9 million bpd for December, a source at the ministry of energy said in a statement.

December

Saudi Arabia may wage oil 'market share war' against the US, reversing output cuts and unleashing a flood of supply, energy expert says

"You've got to attack the guy that's making the marginal decision to drill or not — and that guy is Mr. Permian Basin."

https://www.businessinsider.com/

Bitcoin

"If I was the government, I'd shut it down." That's what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says about crypto. Dimon sent me away when I went to buy some. I had a nice-sized account, and it meant nothing. JPMorgan is serious about this. Dimon says crypto companies should face the same anti-money-laundering regulations as the major financial institutions.

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1 December 2023

We entered November moderately invested and took profits into the middle of the month ahead of retail stock earnings reports. When retail earnings were reported the subject stocks moved higher. Following the adage that the price action is more important than the news we moved back into our favorite retail trades- at higher prices. Some of the price action was short covering but sentiment may be changing since many of these retail stocks are improving their financials. Also, the tripling of the price of Abercrombie (sold too soon-as usual- but at a profit) might be an example of the potential for profit if these issues get their houses in order and that piece action was not unnoticed by the big boys and girls.

Since our expected mid-month November pullback did not occur, in the last weeks we have reentered the market buying out of favor year end trades plus additional under selling pressure stocks. We may have to endure a December pullback since the major market measures are currently extended by the 10% rally in the last 2 months. Or maybe Mr. Market will show Holiday cheer and let rotation among stock groups work off the excess.

We currently own:

3M, Disney, Best Buy, Fortinet, Cisco, Campbell Soup, Bristol Myers, Pfizer, AT&T, Verizon, Ford, Regional Bank ETF, Key Bank and Walgreens. These are our Big Cap issues and all except Disney and Fortinet have 4% plus dividend yields.

Our retail issues are Tapestry (Kate Spade and Coach), Foot Locker, Kohl's, the Gap, VF Corp (Timberland, North Face and Vans), Macy's, Nordstrom and Under Armour.

We tiptoed back into the content producers- AMC Networks, Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery. They have been unkind to us the last few years but since they are at multi year lows we think they are good for at least a trade into the New Year.

The same goes for: Organon and Ken Vue spinoffs from Merck and Johnson & Johnson respectively. We also own a bit of Canadian Solar Rivian, Hain and United Natural Foods.

Folks love catastrophes-even when man made.

The Crash at Crush

https://wacohistory.org/items/show/70

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