23 February 2026

Markets closed higher for the 15th week out of 18. The rally has all the major market measures at record highs. NVDIA reported blowout earnings on Wednesday night and the share price went parabolic up 110 points. On Friday NVDA opened 30 points higher but closed unchanged on the day.

That move higher by NVDA negated Palo Alto's (PANW's revenue and earnings were in line but guidance wasn't') 100-point drop on Tuesday (we bought shares on Thursday AM and sold them Friday for a profit).

The chip area roared along on NVDIA's good news.

The markets action gives us pause, and since our trading hasn't been working, we decided to raise more cash. The Congress is back next week with budget action, maybe, and Ukraine non action on the agenda, the Israeli/Gaza mess continues, the Ides of March approach and we will be more comfortable watching. We don't trade the stocks that are leading the markets higher so inaction is warranted.

At week's end we own The Gap, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, The Solar ETF (RAYS) and AMC Networks- (not the movie theatres) and cash, wonderful cash.

We need a rest and so does Mr. Market. We will- don't know about Mr. Market.

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Who Knew?

Hedge fund stampede into cocoa futures fuels record price spike [FT]

Speculative traders have amassed an $8.7bn bet across London and New York cocoa futures contracts that prices will continue to rise, the largest ever in dollar terms…. The wager, which has earned bumper profits for trend-following hedge funds so far in 2024, has helped to drive the London price to a record close of £4,757 per ton last Friday, more than double the level a year ago. New York cocoa futures have surged to $5,888.00 per ton, also an all-time high.

https://dealbreaker.com/2024/02/opening-bell-2-16-2024

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The gold sneaker King's Truth Social may now be able to merge.

"In order to be successful, TMTG will need millions of those people to register and regularly use TMTG's platform," the company wrote. "If President Trump becomes less popular or there are new controversies that damage his credibility or the desire of people to use a platform associated with him, and from which he will derive financial benefit, TMTG's results of operations could be adversely affected."

The stock linked to Donald Trump's Truth Social platform is flying high. Read this before you invest.

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16 February 2024

Inflation numbers (CPI and PPI) were higher than expected and the first caused a 500 point DJIA drop. The second on Friday coupled with the long holiday weekend led to a boring Friday

6 weeks into the New Year we realized that our trading isn't doing much in the way of profits and so we are abandoning trying to trade already out of favor stocks on earnings misses (Hain celestial and AMC entertainment). We sold all our HAIN and cut our AMCX position in half. We took short profits in IAT (regional Bank ETF) Nordstrom and Macy's. Starbucks and Zoom were sold for scratch losses and Moderna for a too larger loss.

Friday, we purchased a small position in ROKU when it dropped 20% even though it had decent earning's news. We bought Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), Paramount (PARA)and repurchased Rays (solar ETF) in some aggressive larger accounts. WBD and PARA report next week. We are back in The Gap as our only Retail stock heading into retail earnings over the next three weeks.

And we have a very comfortable cash/USFR position (40% and greater in most accounts.

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Thoughts

At what age should folks retire because their brains get foggy?

Justice Thomas, 75. Justice Alito, 73.

Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in the third year of his first term. He was reelected. Roosevelt, Wilson, Kennedy all had serious medical issues and were elected and reelected (except Kennedy, of course).

https://www.history.com/news/5-presidents-who-hid-their-health-issues

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If you are wondering what Jared's been doing read on:

https://www.wonkette.com/p/jared-kushner-shows-face-in-public

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From Rick Wholey Poitras Group. (https://wholeypoitrasgroup.bairdwealth.com/)

We are going to recommend the Group as the place for our accounts to move when we finally retire. (hopefully not soon-even though we are 80 and thus not Competent to think clearly or walk well according to FOX, NYT, WAPO, CNN and many talking heads).

New year…new market? With another very strong year for US stocks now in the rearview, eyes naturally shift to the road ahead (the stock market is always looking forward, so why shouldn't investors be, as well?).

Unfortunately, as is often the case, those eyes seem to gravitate towards the things that could go wrong rather than the things that could go right – the pervasive negativity bias of the human mind at work. A potentially volatile presidential election, abundant geopolitical risks, and, more generally, the sense that after such a tremendous rally to close 2023, the party can't keep going; that strong returns last year have stolen some potential from 2024.

As usual, we turn to history to see if that idea bears fruit. Over the last century the S&P 500 has been positive roughly 75% of years at an 11% average annual return. Stock prices and corporate earnings have trended higher over time – albeit not without volatility – at a pretty reliable clip. Which brings us to 2024. How has the market performed across history following incredibly strong years like 2023?

The answer: pretty good! From 1928 to 2022, the S&P 500 returned over 20% in a calendar year on 34 separate occasions, and the median return in the year following those years is 11%. What's more, over half of the time, the market followed up a 20%+ year with another double-digit return year. Now, we can't say this is for sure going to happen – but the point is, don't fear new highs.

In fact, if there's a theme that we are intent on reiterating over the coming weeks, it is that good performance today doesn't mean a higher likelihood of bad performance in the future; that market rallies and all-time highs are not bearish signposts, but bullish ones. In markets, momentum tends to beget momentum. In fact, over the last 50 years, forward returns from all-time highs are actually better than the all-period average!

So, for the new year, perhaps a good resolution should be this: remain optimistic against the sure-to-be-scary headlines, and don't let 2023's strength alone sour your 2024 outlook.

9 February 2024

The S&P 500 passed above 5000 this week up 5% for the year with the DJIA up 3% and NASDAQ 100 up 6%. We are flat to up/down 2%.

New institutional and retail money continue to flow into the super Six (Tesla is out) as the Big Boys and Girls stick with the momentum stocks that are working. We are trading our usual suspects that have percentage gain potential better than market faves.

We sold The Gap and Ford for gains this week; added several depressed large caps and reentered Moderna, Bristol Myers and Pfizer. We added to VFC and AMCX when they dropped on ugh earnings and repurchased HAIN when they also disappointed.

Moderna is under pressure because some analysts are speculating that its RSV vaccine's efficacy declines faster than competitor vaccines. Moderna is also weak because it's Covid vaccine sales are withering. We are buying because its combination therapy with Merck's Keytruda for Melanoma is effective in over 40% of patients and that therapy is now in stage 1 trials for folks with lung cancer.

At week end we own: AT&T and Verizon, Starbucks, 3M, Zoom Moderna, Bristol Myers, Pfizer, Apache Oil, IAT (Regional Bank ETF), Key Bank, AMC Entertainment, Hain, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, Macy's, Nordstrom, VF Corp and Under Armour.

Happy Valente's Day.

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2 February 2024

$8 Million for a pair of Jordan Sneakers. Almost 400,000 new jobs in February. Inflation in the 3% range. Wages up 4% this year. Unemployment at 3.7% of the population. No wonder the Trumpsters have only Immigration to run on. And there is a compromise bill in the Senate that would work on that problem. But if the House lets it come up for a vote-there goes Trumpsters only talking point aside from his usual gibberish about how he is the most popular person in human history.

A good Employment report when super bulls wanted less jobs and wage growth couldn't end the rally although it did help to slow it down. This week Meta (Facebook) had super earnings according to the Talking Heads as did Microsoft, Apple and Netflix. Google, not so much. The 10% to 20% pop in those stocks kept the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 moving higher with the DJIA participating.

We repurchased our retailers UA, VFC, M, GPS and JWN as we watched Abercrombie pass $100 (5 times where we were trading it profitably last January). Hopefully the Big Boys and Girls who didn't like ANF at $20 last January (but love it now at $100) will find the same magic in one or two of our five in the next year. A double in any of them will be fine with us.

We also repurchased Key Bank as we decided we need to own at least one bank stock.

We currently own: AT&T, Intel (small position), Walgreens (hopefully not Boots), Apache Oil, Halo Therapeutics, Key Bank, Ford, The Gap, Macy's, Nordstrom, VF Corp, and Under Armour.

Our large accounts have 60% cash holdings (USFR yielding 5%) and all but our small associated accounts have 40 % USFR.

The January thaw is here and running into February. At our age it is much appreciated as we walk the dog.

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