 | ||
 |
||
 |
||
 |
||
 |
||
 |
||
 |
||
 |
||
 |
 |
Bud's Poem Page Katie's Route 66 Blog Katie's Coast2Coast Blog Katie's West Coast Blog Katie's East Coast Blog |
29 March 2024The Quarter ended with Major measures up 5% to 10%. Markets are up over 25% since October and the talking heads and many gurus are positive/cautious at the same time covering all bases in case there is an unexplained pullback. The Trumpsters new con DJT ended the week up 50% from last Friday's close. The shares traded this week exceeded 100 million which is twice the outstanding shares. Interestingly, all of the crazies who bought and held their shares are holding at a loss since the shares closed at $60 while trading above that level all week and as high $77. We remain cautious with large accounts up 2% and smaller up 5%. We continue to consolidate owning Pfizer, Intel, AT&T, Verizon, Macy's and VF Corp, Ford, Key and Huntington Banks, Southwest Air and Chipotle. We owned Chipotle years ago and unfortunately sold it. We repurchased now- as a spec - in single share amounts (it trades for $2900 a share) because it is going to split 50 (49+1) shares for each current share. The purpose of the split is to make the share price more attractive to individual investors who like to purchase 100 share amounts. We think the split will add up to 20% to the price. CMG is a much-loved stock. Cash holdings remain in excess of 50% in accounts. ***** 22 March 2024After four days of gains, stock markets closed lower on Friday. Given that markets have been steadily rising since October a consolidation is warranted. But the big boys an girls will keep playing their computer games because they profit whether markets are up or down. the Dow is up nearly 5%, S&P 500 and QQQ are both up 9% on the year. With are over 70% cash position we are up 2%. Lululemon and Nike disappointed on Friday with both LULU dropping 15% in price. That none day pullback gives an idea of how extended some issues are. Market optimism was kicked into high-gear Wednesday. This week we realized another nice profit in the Gap. The Gap seems to be turning it around but it has doubled in price since September and are out for now awaiting consolidation. We also made a scratch profit inn Nordstrom when it popped on news the when family which owns n 40% of shares have hired folks to advise on going private. The problem with the intention is that several years ago a take private offer at $55 a share was considered insufficient by a board appointed committee. With JWN at $20 there isn't going to be a $60 price and any price below that would seem a non-starter. We will continue to trade the shares as the fluctuate on rumors. The stock is cheap. We had a one-day scratch profit in Kohls and trended out of Foot Locker for a scratch when Nike shares tanked and LULU 15% suggested that retail euphoria may be calming. We have repurchased Intel, Bristol Myers, Campbell's, Cisco and Southwest Air to replace retail position we have sold. And we have cash earning 5%. ***** The Trump $5Billion Con job. Below is our take on the DWAC to DJT merger occurring next week. We take issue with the valuation all the news organizations are ascribing. Right now, at $40 per share, DWAC has a market value of $1.5 billion. It has 40 million shares outstanding. Add trumps 80 million shares and you get 120 million shares. Since the only value being added is Trump's name (Truth Social loses money), at its current market value DJT Should trade at $$1.25 per share on Monday. Moreover, the only reason DWAC has a current value of $1.5 billion is because it is going to merge with Trumpster's Truth Social. Those are the financial realities that the worth is unknowable but certainly not worth even $1 per share. For confirmation: Trump Airlines, Trump University, Trump Steaks, Trump Taj Mahal and other casinos etc. But in our gambling hungry society which has turned the stock market into a casino, the Meme crowd may initially move it the shares to $10 or $20 or even above $100 because to them it's all a game. Since, after the merger there will still only be 40 million shares outstanding for trading only 50000 goofs buying 1000 shares each are needed to pump the price to the stratosphere. Short sellers will avoid this stock like the plague. The DJT Board (all Trumpster's friends) at DJT will at some point before the six months lock up (before insiders can sell) allow the Trumpster permission to sell shares and The Trumpster will have created the greatest con of his career and the most profitable con job ever. For more on this extraordinary Trump Con see: https://www.spacinsider.com/news/deal-announcements-amendments/digital-world-dwac-adds-50m-pipe-with-generous-terms Just trying to make a buck AstraZeneca Suddenly Figured Out They Don't Have to Charge $640 For Inhalers https://www.wonkette.com/p/astrazeneca-suddenly-figured-out They'll just steal it or use AI to write it Two major newspaper chains dropped the AP. What will it mean for readers? https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/03/21/gannett-mcclatchy-associated-press/ ***** The Ides of March 2024Mr. Market seems to vacationing in Florida with the Spring break kids. Major earnings announcements are ended till next quarter; the big boys and girls are still playing their computer games; but there is no trend discernable and the markets are resting just below their all-time highs. Higher highs are now dependent on rotation into better value but a move from the Super Six is not occurring. Institutional folks can't seem to move on from the safety in numbers that the Fancy stocks have been providing. We used this week to refocus taking a too large loss in Viking Therapeutics when we realized we had turned a trade into an investment. We sold Hewlett Packard Enterprise's when its breakout failed and We re-entered The Gap after taking a nice profit but then realizing the we have a hard time being out of it. We repurchased VF Corp at a lower the sold price and tiptoed back into Macys when it was announced that Macy's had opened its books to the folks who want to take it private. We repurchased Under Armour when UA let its CEO go as Kevin Plank reassumed the CEO roll. To Plank's possible embarrassment, when that action was announced the stock dropped 12% to $7, Not a great vote of confidence but at that level its worth purchase for another trade. UA's earnings have been better than for the last several quarters but still dismal. We added the regional bank ETF that we have been trading for the last year and continue to own Verizon, Walgreens's, Foot Locker and Nordstrom. And with a vey comfortable cash positions (USFR yielding 5%) we hope you enjoy the Spring weather with condolences to the folks in Colorado with a foot to four feet of snow. ***** 8 March 2024Markets continue to make new highs although lest robustly than earlier this year. We continue to maintain a large cash holding in larger accounts. We repurchased trading positions in Nordstrom and Foot Locker when they lost 15% and 30% respectively on ok earnings but lousy forecasts. We sold our Gap position ahead of earnings given the reaction to Foot Locker and Nordstrom earnings; but repurchased a half position the day before earnings when American Eagle reported better than. Over the years GPS and AEO earnings reports have tended to trend the same. And, The Gap pleased analysts when GPS reported better than. The Gap's new management still has work to do as Old Navy same store sales rose 6%, the name's sake stores' rose 2% but Banana Republic and Athletica had negative same store comps. We are back in trading positions in Palo Alto and Viking Therapeutics; have reentered Walgreens and Verizon and bought a bit of Hewlett Packard when it broke above $19 (above a 10-year high) on enthusiasm for its AI purchase. ***** Non-Market Comments: The felony murder rule now has an IVF exception in Alabama Alabama's new IVF law says IVF folks and providers won't be prosecuted for murder- If It's for IVF. The new law doesn't say an embryo is not a person. But it does say that if you dispose of the embryo as part of an IVF procedure you won't be prosecuted. ***** Elon Musk is competing with the Trumpster to be the biggest #&**%! Elon Musk flies to Mar-a-Lago as Trump seeks cash for those pesky court fees Elon Musk isn't a fan of MacKenzie Scott's Bezos ex-wife) charitable giving. "'Super rich ex-wives who hate their former spouse' should filed be listed among 'Reasons that Western Civilization died,'" Musk wrote in an X post referencing Jeff Bezos' ex-wife. Musk was responding to another user who said Scott had been giving money to organizations that "deal with issues of race and/or gender. "Super rich ex-wives who hate their former spouse" should filed be listed among "Reasons that Western Civilization died" — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 6, 2024 It's unclear why Musk singled out Scott in particular, but he has been an avowed and extremely vocal critic of efforts to promote diversity, equity, and inclusion. ***** A group of former Twitter executives sued Elon Musk on Monday in a bid to recover more than $128 million in severance that they allege Musk has not paid since he acquired the company, now called X, more than a year ago…. "Because Musk decided he didn't want to pay Plaintiffs' severance benefits, he simply fired them without reason, then made up fake cause and appointed employees of his various companies to uphold his decision," the complaint, filed Monday in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, states. "He claimed in his termination letters that each Plaintiff committed ‘gross negligence' and ‘willful misconduct' without citing a single fact in support of this claim." ***** Because Musk is an alien (Repub speak) he can't run for president. That's one small blessing. ***** Mark Cuban on who he'll vote for president. Cuban needs no more convincing on who he'll vote for come November. Speaking to Bloomberg this month, he shrugged off concerns about Biden's advanced age: "If they were having his last wake, and it was him versus Trump, and he was being given last rites, I would still vote for Joe Biden." Trump Stuff The Saudis own the largest oil refinery in America (courtesy the Trumpster) and thus can control gas prices in the states buy closing the refinery for repairs and service- at election time. Worth the read: https://www.alternet.org/alternet-exclusives/biden-saudi-arabia-election/ There is something wrong at the New York Times From presidential polls to refusing to report on Trump's stumbles, things aren't adding up at the Gray Lady 1 March 2024 (St David’s Day, a traditional Welch Holiday)As with the weather in most places, March has begun as a lamb in the markets. Given that Mr. Market has been roaring like a lion for the past four months, at least a consolidation is warranted if not a substantial correction. Eli Lilly is giving Nvidia a run for market leadership as the big boys and girls move into the shares on its predicted soon to be $1 Trillion market cap ($1000 per share up from $300 in the last 12 months and $775 today). With the reality of weight loss drug mania, yesterday we purchased Viking Therapeutics in small amounts for accounts. The share price has doubled this week ($40 to $80). It is up from a $1 billion market cap to $9 billion this month. This action occurred because VKTX announced excellent Phase 2 results from its weight loss drug The phase 2 data that drove Viking's stock higher came from a trial with less than 200 patients. It isn't going to reach commercial stages without a much larger study that takes years to complete. Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has been on the market since 2022 and will be entrenched by the time VK2735 has a chance to compete. We rarely chase a stock but because weight loss drugs sales are expected to be a $100 billion market in the future and that Lilly is expected to be a $ 1 trillion stock, we are surmising that big boy and girl and even meme money will be flowing into VKTX as a cheaper way to participate. We don't know how long we will stay at the party; but for now, with few stock positions and 80% plus cash we are along for the very speculative ride. At week end, in addition to Viking Therapeutic we owned The Gap, and repurchased Macy's after it popped 10% to $21.50 on decent earnings and the announced closing of 150 more Department stores. Management is now concentrating on the prospective opening of more Bloomies, Blue Mercury stores and less square footage Macy's stores. After jumping to $21.50 on Tuesday, Macy's shares dropped Wednesday and Thursday to under $18 (we bought at $17.8) as there was a committed seller/sellers with the selling seeming to end on Friday. We have been eliminating our AMC Networks shares in accounts as the immediate outlook for the content providers WBD and PARA is dismal. AMCX is cheap cheap cheap but the potential acquirers have too much debt and the CEO Kristin Dolan is the wife of James Dolan who controls Madison Square Garden. Given that they don't need the money We're guessing they wouldn't sell out for less than $40 a share, the price around which it traded for many years. It's a thin trader so it does pop occasionally and we are using those pops to gradual eliminate positions for scratch losses. Our USFR position still has an annual yield above 5%-risk free. ***** Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 on Wednesday. The last time it was that high was December 2021 when all the fancy stocks were at all time highs before the correction of 2022. Just saying it may be a rhyme- or not. ***** NYC's homicide rate is 4.8 per 100k; Alabama's homicide rate is 15.9 per 100k — more than three times (300%- as the media folks usually report) that of NYC. According to federal government statistics, the states with the three highest homicide death rates are Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, which are all dominated by Republicans. ***** Trump and Repubs gave top US firms staggering tax cuts, with some paying $0 or less – report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/29/trump-tax-cuts-us-companies ***** Back in 1974, at least Chief Justice Rehnquist had the good sense to recuse himself in the US v Nixon case because of his close ties to the Nixon administration. Here, Clarence Thomas' wife was deeply involved in January 6th and he won't even consider a recusal. If the Supremes rule for Trump, Biden will be free to do whatever. "[SCOTUS] will prematurely hear a completely frivolous claim that if sustained, would allow any POTUS to commit crimes with almost unbridled immunity. This will delay his federal 1/6 trial indefinitely. A political and traitorous decision from a totally discredited SCOTUS." The most corrupt Supreme Court in the world and the Trump coup
The most corrupt Supreme Court in the world and the Trump coup At least four members of the most corrupt Supreme Court in American history have decided to help Trump delay his... *****
Comments on activity archives2023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002FAIR USE NOTICE This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Check the background of this firm at https://brokercheck.finra.org/ For Information on RBC LLC SIPC and Excess SIPC protection https://www.rbcwm-usa.com/legal/rbc-cs/cid-319579.html. For those clients of LY & Co and other interested persons the Quarterly Report on the routing of customer orders under SEC Rule11Ac1-6.
All SEC Rule11Ac1-6 Quarterly reports up to March 2, 2012 may be found by visiting the diclosures at LY& Co Clearing Broker RBC Clearing & Custody
https://www.rbcclearingandcustody.com/en-us/ Annual offer to present clients of Lemley Yarling Management Co. Under Rule 204-3 of the SEC Advisors Act, we are pleased to offer to send to you our updated Form ADV, Part II for your perusal. If any present client would like a copy, please don't hesitate to write, e-mail, or call us. A list of all recommendations made by Lemley Yarling Management Co for the preceding one-year period is available upon request. |
| 309 W Johnson Street Apt 544 Madison, WI 53703 312-925-5248 | ||
| | ||
|