May 25, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
thought a buying opportunity might arise on Tuesday if the markets dropped
substantially on Monday and then dropped Tuesday till noon. Instead, the
markets did the opposite by rallying big-time on Monday and dropping on Tuesday
after rallying till noon. On Wednesday the market measures dropped over 1% but
rallied to close unchanged. They then meandered on Thursday and Friday.
1250 and 1150 remain our targets on the S&P 500. Our
thought is that a swift drop to 1250 would provide a good trading opportunity
while our investment level is the 1150. For now we remain in cash and patient.
*****
May 18, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
remain all cash in accounts. The S&P 500 is about 7% off its high but we
expect it to visit 1250 (at 1300 today) and maybe 1115 before the correction is
over. Since the markets have been down 12 of the last 13 days a rally next
Tuesday is a probability, but with the Facebook offering complete at the high
end of the range we expect any rally to fail. Cash earns nothing but it also
doesn’t lose anything.
*****
May 11, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
We
remain all cash in accounts. The markets have pulled back a bit but we envision
a greater drop and are biding our time.
*****
May 4, 2012
Comment on Model Portfolio activity
There
was no activity this week in the portfolio as markets continued at post 2008
high levels and sentiment remained positive. Some former high flyers crashed
and burned (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters down 40% in one day and 75% since
November) and others (LINKEDIN, Whole Foods) jumped 10% on earnings beats. The
positive action is concentrated in the 50 times earnings stocks since at those
levels ideas overrule fundamentals. As long as the big
boys and girls want to buy, those stocks will continue to rise while the staid
blue chips meander. The Facebook offering in the middle of the month may mark
the top of this rally.
Some
the stocks in the portfolio we sold in February have continued higher but most
of the sold issues are 20% and more below our sale prices. Out of favor stocks
are certainly not participating as institutions hop on the latest fad-internet
social networking. Even Apple is experiencing profit taking.
We
are biding our time awaiting the correction.
*****
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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